Global Economic Monitor 220329

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks look past rate risks in late rally, yen wilts

•   US: A Recession Warning Sign? Part of U.S. Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2006

※   Spread between five- and 10-year yields had already inverted

•   Japan: Yen hits 7-year low after Bank of Japan sticks to stimulus

※   Currency drops to ¥125 per dollar as other central banks push ahead with interest rate rises

•   Metals: Copper rebounds despite Shanghai lockdown

•   Grains: U.S. grains fall with other commodities, U.S. crop data awaited

•   한국: 코스피, 외국인·기관 매도에 하락 출발…2,710대

•   한국: 미 반도체지수 15% 급등에도 삼성전자 주가 왜 이래

•   한국: 10년물 국채 금리 연 3% 돌파…원·엔환율 1000원 붕괴

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. Goods trade balance: U.S. Goods-Trade Gap Narrows Slightly From a Record

•   US Mar. Dallas Fed manufacturing Index: Fed Factory Surveys Show Pickup in Inflation Expectations

•   한국 3월 소비자동향: 소비심리 소폭 개선…기대인플레 2.9%, 7년11개월래 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine and Russia Prepare for Talks in Turkey as Russian Missiles Hit Cities

※   Ukrainian forces fight to recapture territory and brace for renewed Russian attacks as Moscow shifts its focus to Ukraine’s east and south

•   WSJ: Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Suspected Poisoning

•   WSJ: How Russia’s Central Bank Engineered the Ruble’s Rebound

•   WSJ: Biden’s Budget Calls for Increase in Defense Spending, Including Funds for Ukraine

※   Spending proposal also emphasizes efforts to reduce deficit and fund law enforcement

※   White House: FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Historic Investment in Pandemic Preparedness and Biodefense in the FY 2023 President’s Budget

•   WSJ: Biden’s Budget: Taxes on Wealthy, Defense and Deficits in Focus

•   WSJ: Pentagon Seeks Higher Military Spending to Keep Pace With China, Russia

•   WSJ: Judge: Trump ‘More Likely Than Not’ Committed Crime in Jan. 6 Efforts

•   WSJ: Democrats Seek to Break Stalemate on Biden Nominees for FTC and FCC

•   WSJ: Shanghai Covid-19 Lockdown Poses Fresh Test to Supply Chains

•   WSJ: For Japan’s Leader, Russian Gas Is Also a Hometown Affair

•   WSJ: Putin’s War in Ukraine Tests Allegiances of Russian Speakers in Former Soviet Latvia

•   WSJ: Lawmakers Launch Probe of Credit Suisse Compliance With Russia Sanctions

•   WSJ: Tesla to Request Shareholder Approval for Stock Split

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Tests Positive for Covid-19 as Tesla Pauses Production in Shanghai

•   WSJ: Looking to Buy an EV? Get on a Wait List

•   WSJ: Secret World of Pro-Russia Hacking Group Exposed in Leak

•   NYT: Would Putin Strike NATO Supply Lines to Ukraine? History Suggests No.

•   NYT: With Eyes on Russia, the U.S. Military Prepares for an Arctic Future

•   NYT: President Macron’s Unending Russia Diplomacy

•   NYT: Is Covid Sparing Africans? The Mystery Matters.

•   NYT: North Korea’s latest missile test may not have been what it claimed

•   NYT: U.S., Israel and Arab states to expand cooperation in unprecedented meeting

•   NYT: When Nokia Pulled Out of Russia, a Vast Surveillance System Remained

•   NYT: New Supply Chain Risk: 22,000 Dockworkers Who May Soon Strike

•   NYT: Reducing Covid’s Toll

•   WP: How Biden’s budget tries to insulate Democrats in the midterms

•   FT: G7 rejects Russian demand for energy payments in roubles

•   FT: The end of an era

•   FT: ECB supports Poland’s currency with €10bn financing deal

•   FT: Zemmour strives to rally faithful as France run-off slips out of reach

•   FT: War with Russia? Finland has a plan for that

•   FT: Sunak admits UK’s dismal recent trade ‘might’ be linked to Brexit

•   FT: EU confronts UK on wind turbines in first WTO dispute since Brexit

•   FT: Britons face ‘historic shock’ to their incomes, BoE governor warns

•   FT: Shanghai split by lockdown as officials struggle to contain Covid outbreak

•   FT: Cushioning the blow of the global food crisis

•   FT: Egypt’s economy reels from Ukraine war

•   FT: Russia’s Arctic gas ambitions at risk as sanctions imperil LNG icebreakers

•   FT: Europe battles to secure specialised ships to boost LNG imports

•   Bloomberg: NATO Allies Are Split on Whether They Should Talk to Putin

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says Putin Remark Showed Outrage, Not Change in Policy

•   Bloomberg: World Moves From Shortages to Possible Glut of Covid-19 Vaccines

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Powell Is Trusting the Wrong Yield Curve, Citi Says

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Exports More Diesel as Global Shortage Fuels Competition

•   Bloomberg: Traders Bet ECB to Hike Interest Rates Four Times Within a Year

•   Bloomberg: Poor and Rich in U.K. Hit Hardest in Pandemic’s First Year

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Energy Rebate Won’t Reduce Inflation, Budget Official Says

•   Bloomberg: Italy Economy to Face Hardest Blow From Surging Gas Price: Chart

•   Bloomberg: China Says Sanctions Causing ‘Unnecessary’ Harm to Russia Trade

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Factories Isolate Staff to Keep Operating in Lockdown

•   Bloomberg: ESG Veteran Sees Putin’s War as Possible Template for Xi to Grab Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Kishida Set to Draw Up Urgent Economic Measures in April

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Central Bank Union Says Strike Delays Key Economic Data

•   Bloomberg: OPEC+ Still Sees No Need to Change Plan Despite Russia Crisis

•   Bloomberg: UAE Signals Support for Russia in OPEC+ Before Group Meets

•   Bloomberg: Argentina's Shale Boom Dream Turns to LNG Buyer Despair With War

•   Bloomberg: Soaring Prices Are Changing the Way People Eat

•   Bloomberg: White House Banks on ‘Price Signals’ to Avert Food Shortage

•   Bloomberg: Clean Power Isn’t Reaching Those Who Need It Most

•   Bloomberg: U.S. to Probe If Asian Factories Are Evading Solar Tariffs

•   Bloomberg: Biden Wants Record $11 Billion in Climate Aid to Poor Nations

•   Bloomberg: China Coal Giant Plans a Surge in Clean Energy Spending

•   Reuters: Germany speaks out against COVID-19 vaccine patent waiver

•   Reuters: Indonesia expects fiscal pressure from high global fuel, food prices

•   Reuters: China's DJI rejects claim that Russian military uses its drones in Ukraine

•   Reuters: Explainer: Part of the U.S. yield curve just inverted: Does that mean a recession is coming?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Locked Russian assets add to war woes for British pension funds

•   Reuters: Analysis: Biden's Putin power remark raises questions about long-term Russia strategy

•   CNBC: Xi’s gamble on Putin may be the most dangerous and short-sighted of his nine years in power

•   CNBC: India is snapping up cheap Russian oil, and China could be next

•   CNBC: Bill Gates and Blackrock are backing the start-up behind hydropanels that make water out of thin air

•   CNBC: Apple reportedly cuts production of its new iPhone SE by 20%

•   MarketWatch: ‘The dam finally broke’: 10-year Treasury yields spike to breach top of downward trend channel seen since mid-1980s, says Deutsche Bank

•   Fox Business: Economist warns US facing 'very significant slowdown'

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai lockdowns spark fear, frustration among European firms about zero-Covid policy

•   SCMP: China’s private firms see Russia as land of opportunity, up for grabs amid West’s exodus

•   Global Times: China’s quest for new ways to handle Omicron

•   Caixin: Cover Story: How Nickel Turmoil Exposed the LME and China’s Tsingshan

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ's lone battle against rising yields accelerates yen's slide

•   Nikkei Asia: Asia faces cost of living crisis on war, COVID, supply chain woes

•   Nikkei Asia: Huawei net profit up 76% in 2021 despite U.S. crackdown

•   매경(P1): 특허 자산 경쟁력 삼성전자 세계1위

•   매경: 삼성 특허지수 애플의 3배…LG전자 자율주행기술 완성차 압도 [100대 지식기업]

•   매경: 전·화·기 쏠림 큰 한국…100대 기업에 헬스케어 0곳

•   매경: 한우물에 집착 안한 아마존·존슨&존슨…'특허 블랙홀' 됐다

•   매경: AI수술 특화기술 보유…단숨에 블록체인 최강

•   매경: 100대 지식재산기업 산출 어떻게…특허 양·영향력·중요성, 자산지수(PAI)로 평가

•   매경(P1): 호반건설, 한진칼 2대주주로…KCGI지분 17.4% 전격 인수

•   매경: [단독] 거대야당 반대 예고에...인수위, 정부 조직개편 최소화 가닥

•   매경: "한국서 기업하기 정말 어렵다"…'47년 화학맨'의 격정 토로

•   매경: [단독] 서울 교통공약 '尹心吳心'…용산~삼송 신분당선 속도낸다

•   매경: 경제사령탑 기재부, 금융부문까지 품나

•   매경: 코로나와 독감 동시에 감염되면 사망률 2.4배 높아져

•   매경: "확진자는 무조건 음압병실? 환자에게 오히려 도움안돼"

•   매경: [단독] "코로나에 적자난 대기업, 법인세 공제한도 확대 필요"

•   매경: 점심 한끼 만원 넘는데…식대 비과세 19년째 월10만원

•   매경: 집값 오르니 취득세 부담 만만치 않네…2년연속 10조 넘어

•   매경: '동네 장사' 전성시대…고덕 옥수 목동 상권 빠르게 회복 [신한카드 빅데이터 분석]

•   매경: 中 '수소 경쟁' 참전…韓은 법안처리 지지부진

•   매경: 러시아 군대 상징 'Z' 때문에 난감한 삼성전자, 이유는

•   매경: '산업부 블랙리스트' 공기업 8社 압수수색

•   한경(P1): "임대차 3법 폐지·축소 검토"

•   한경(P1): 윤석열, 민관합동委에 CEO 중용한다…"기업인 노하우 적극 반영"

•   한경: "정책 입안단계부터 다양한 아이디어 반영" 경제계 기대감

•   한경(P1): "임대차 3법 폐지·축소 검토"

•   한경: 한은 "수도권 전세 가격, 2년여 만에 하락 전환"

•   한경: "일자리 늘린 기업 세무조사 완화"

•   한경: "공사장 사망 사고땐 즉시 퇴출하겠다"…건설업계 '초긴장'

•   한경: 치솟는 IT업계 연봉…카카오, 삼성 제쳤다

•   서경(P1): 박정호 SK스퀘어 대표 "ARM 사고 싶다"

•   서경: SK스퀘어, 인텔 낸드 이어 반도체 설계기업도 인수 ‘신호탄’

•   서경(P1): [시그널] 기술특례 상장기업 82%가 '실적 뻥튀기'

•   서경: 총리·경제부총리 '원팀' 이르면 다음주 지명한다

•   서경: '효율 중시' 尹인수위서 부활한 '명함·자문위원단'

•   서경: 인수위, 김앤장서 물가 조언…'인플레파이터' 한은 패싱?

•   서경: 아파트 재산세 치솟자…'조세불복'도 사상 최다

•   서경: "빅데이터 시대, 통계청 역할 커져"…인수위에 '처' 승격 요청

•   서경: 한은, 이창용 총재 후보자 '청문회 TF' 가동

•   서경: 고정금리, 변동보다 0.7%P↑…속타는 대출자

•   서경: 삼성전자 70조·SK하이닉스 10조…반도체 호조에 1분기 최대 매출

•   서경: 반도체 기판 품귀에…1.6조 투입하는 삼성전기

•   서경: 치솟는 원자재값…건설현장 '2차파업' 예고

•   서경: '똘똘한 한채'에 수요 몰리자 '아파트값 양극화' 역대 최고

•   조선(P1): 尹 “용산 이전 꼭 하고싶다” 文 “예산 살펴 협조”

•   조선: 용산·인사·추경 의견 나눴지만… 구체적 합의안은 못내놔

•   조선: 尹, 사흘전 김부겸과 만찬… 총리 연임 논의했나

•   조선: 총리 할까 말까… 안철수는 고민중

•   조선: 한전이 전기요금 4월 인상 유보하자...인수위 “文정부가 결정할 일”

•   조선: 北, 풍계리 핵실험 움직임...정부 “예의 주시중”

•   조선: 산업부 국장, 발전4社 사장들에 “정부 방침이니 나가라”

•   조선: “백신 안맞은 상태로 오미크론 걸리면 새로 나오는 변이에 쉽게 감염될 수도”

•   조선: 확진자도 일반 병의원 갈 수 있게 한다

•   조선: NFT, 거품 터지고 있다

•   조선: ‘부산행’은 산업은행만?… 금융 공기업들 뒤숭숭

•   조선: [단독] 중대재해법에... 설거지하다 허리 다칠라, 보조 싱크대 설치

•   조선비즈: 尹정부 ‘구조조정 1순위’ 한국판 뉴딜 민낯…돈 80% 이상 펀드서 잠자는데 또 출자

•   조선비즈: IMF, 올해 韓 물가 전망 2.2→3.1%로 상향...“스태그플레이션 대응 필요”

※   IMF: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Korea

•   인베스트조선: 유일한 적자 시장, 그러나 버릴 순 없는…다시 중국으로 향하는 현대차

•   동아: “친환경 전기차의 새로운 미세먼지 막아라” 저감기술 개발 ‘시동’

•   동아: 유가 쇼크에 무역수지 휘청… 올들어 ―60억 달러

•   동아: 수출기업 3곳중 1곳 “자금사정 악화… 원자재값 올라 큰 부담”

•   문화: 인프라·인력 풍부한데… ‘규제완화’ 역차별에 서울서 기업하기 어렵다

•   문화: 대한상의, 전국42곳 돌며 중대재해법 고충 듣는다

•   문화: ‘원전강국 재도약’… 8조원대 체코사업 수주 총력전

•   한국(P1): 1년에 60% 인상은 기본? 홀로 내달리는 대기업 임금

•   한국: 대기업 노조는 “더 달라”, 중소기업은 생존 위기… 임금 양극화 해법은

•   국민(P1): 삼성·한전 자회사 檢 전방위 압수수색

•   국민: “VR은 잊어라”… 앞다퉈 메타버스 타는 글로벌 빅테크

•   서울(P1): ‘검출률 56.3%’ 스텔스 오미크론 우세종 됐다

•   경향: 유통 기업들, ‘페이’ 전쟁…간편결제서비스에 공들이는 까닭

•   머니투데이(P1): 尹, 전금법 개정안 업그레이드…"취할 건 취한다"

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위, 대통령 직속 과학컨트롤타워 구성 '착수'

•   머니투데이: 노동계 상견례 앞둔 尹인수위...중대재해처벌법 접점 찾을까

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 더 내는 연금개혁, 尹에 달렸다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 균형발전-자치분권위 통폐합 검토

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "중국발 물류·반도체대란 오나" 국내외 기업들 초긴장 [中 경제수도 상하이 봉쇄]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "배달 할래요, 돈 많이 벌잖아요"... 식당·미용실에 일할 사람이 없다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 삼성, 연내 ‘차세대 폼팩터’ 승부수 띄우나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 내달 1일 새 거리두기 결정… 완전 풀릴 가능성도 [오미크론발 대유행 정점 꺾였다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 블록체인·가상자산 생태계로… 대기업 거침없는 진격

•   아시아경제(P1): 文정부 5년, 늘어난 공무원만 13만명…朴정부 3배, 李정부 10배

•   아시아경제(P1): 현대차·기아, 지난해 매출성장률 글로벌 완성차 1위

•   아시아경제: 상장 철회는 봇물·승인 심사는 깐깐…5월까지 그림자 안보이는 IPO

•   디지털타임스: 균형발전한다더니 수도권 쏠림… "새정부, 균특회계 전면개편해야“

•   디지털타임스: 文정부서 쑥쑥 성장한 중기부 5년만에 해체되나

•   디지털타임스: "실적 떨어질라"… 기업대출로 눈돌리는 은행들

•   이데일리(P1): [단독] 박정호의 승부수…SK코인, 카카오와 손잡다

•   이데일리: 치솟는 기름값에도 정부는 유류세 인하율 확대 `신중론`…왜?

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 33만3951명 확진…다시 15만56명 급증

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 '폰 부품 표준화' SCM 파장

•   전자신문(P1): 코로나19로 11개 업종서 1위 기업 '자리바꿈'

•   전자신문: 국외 온실가스 감축사업 지지부진…상쇄배출권 한도 5% 축소 영향

•   전자신문: 산업부, 2027년 레벨4 자율주행차 기술 확보 박차

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[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Michael Spence): Startup Culture Goes Global

•   Project Syndicate(Joschka Fischer): How the Ukraine War Must Remake Europe

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey D. Sachs): Time to Talk Peace Terms with Russia

•   Project Syndicate(Hans-Werner Sinn): Germany's Energy Fiasco

•   Project Syndicate(Max Krahé): How the West Enabled War in Ukraine

•   FT(Editorial Board): An inverted yield curve need not cause panic

•   FT(Editorial Board): Electric vehicles’ success is a headache for the Treasury

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): China is less likely to back Russia while facing troubles of its own

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Ukraine war risks destabilising the west

•   FT(Robert Armstrong, Ethan Wu): What the bond rout is telling us

•   FT(Barry Eichengreen): Ukraine war accelerates the stealth erosion of dollar dominance

•   FT(Lex): China stocks: Shanghai lockdown creates more uncertainty for global supply chains

•   FT(Lex): Floating LNG: lack of vessels could stymie a good option for Europe

•   FT(Lex): US bonds: don’t fret about inversion yet

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The President We Have

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Russia’s War With Ukraine Unifies Europe

•   WSJ(Gerard Baker): Biden at the Improv: Ukraine and the Dangers of Foreign Policy by Open Mic

•   WSJ(Jakub Grygiel): Ukraine War Shows the ‘Rules-Based International Order’ Is a Myth

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Here’s the Neat Trick of Biden’s Billionaire Tax

•   NYT(Andrew Hill): Sanctions and rationing: the next shock for companies

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden told the truth about Putin. But regime change is not a policy option.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden’s new agenda: Insufficient, incomplete … and pretty good

•   WP(Max Boot): Stop overestimating the Russian military and underestimating Ukrainians

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Stop making excuses for Biden’s gaffes

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): The Yen's Plunge Is a Dilemma of Japan's Own Making

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Japan and the Yen Find a New Way to Market Relevancy in Era of War and Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): Putin’s Ukraine War Is Hollowing Out Russia’s Tech Future