Global Economic Monitor 220325

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street powers stocks higher, oil lower as world leaders press Russia

※   U.S. equities jump, with tech-led Nasdaq up nearly 2%

※   Oil drops around 3%, still above $110 a barrel

※   U.S. Treasury yields inch up further

※   Gold up more than 1%

•   US: Nvidia, Intel lead rally in chip stocks as optimism on economy boosts riskier assets

•   Russia: Russian Stock Market Rallies After Being Closed for a Month

•   Metals: Nickel jumps to daily limits on supply worries; aluminium retreats

•   Grains: US wheat, corn, soybeans fall with exports in focus

•   한국: 코스피, 유가 부담·미 증시 하락에 0.20% 내린 2,720대

[Indicators]

•   US·Europe·Asia Mar. PMI: Europe’s Economy Slows as Ukraine War Sends Costs Soaring

※   Russian invasion disrupts supply and boosts prices, while pandemic restrictions ease and U.S. business activity picks up, surveys show

•   US Q4 Current account: U.S. current account deficit biggest on record in 2021

•   US Feb. Durable goods orders: U.S. core capital goods orders fall in February

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 187,000, Lowest Level Since 1969

•   India Mar. Consumer sentiment: Consumer sentiment recovers sharply after setback suffered in second wave: CMIE

•   South Africa Benchmark rate: Russia’s War Spurs South Africa to Raise Rate, Turn Hawkish

•   한국 2021년 사회지표: "한지붕 세식구 보기 힘들다"…평균 가구원수 2.3명으로 줄어

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): "단숨에 15억 올랐다"…심상찮은 강남 재건축 아파트

[News]

•   WSJ: Biden Calls for Russia to Be Expelled From G-20

※   President pledges U.S. to take up to 100,000 refugees, increases aid to Ukraine at gatherings for NATO, G-7 and EU

※   White House: Background Press Call on President Biden’s Meetings with the G7 and the European Council

•   WSJ: U.S. Will Admit 100,000 Refugees Fleeing Ukraine, White House Says

•   WSJ: U.K. Says Russian Mercenary Group Aims to Assassinate Ukraine’s President

•   WSJ: For Years, Poland Warned of the Russian Threat. Now, the West Is Listening.

•   WSJ: U.S. Charges Russian Government Hackers With Campaign of Global Energy Cyberattacks

•   WSJ: Russian Central Bank Chief Tried to Quit Over Ukraine War

•   WSJ: In America’s No. 1 Inflation Hotspot, Democrats Face Restive Voters

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Cases Are Up in the U.K. Does That Mean the U.S. Is Next?

•   WSJ: Rising Interest Rates Will Shift Housing’s Foundations

•   WSJ: War in Ukraine Forces European Bulls to Unwind Bets

•   WSJ: Uber Reaches Deal to List All New York City Taxis on Its App

•   WSJ: Toshiba Shareholders Reject Plan to Break Into Two Parts

•   WSJ: Elon Musk’s SpaceX Boosts Prices for Internet Service, Rocket Launches

•   WSJ: Car Buyers Shun Leases as Deals and Vehicles Dwindle

•   NYT: How One Month of War in Ukraine Ground to a Bloody Stalemate

•   NYT: The W.H.O. says the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron is driving most cases around the world.

•   NYT: E.U. Takes Aim at Big Tech’s Power With Landmark Digital Act

•   WP: Europe wants to cut Russian energy. Climate policies can help.

•   FT: US plans to boost supplies of liquefied natural gas to EU

•   FT: Military briefing: the make-or-break fight for the Donbas

•   FT: ECB to tighten banks’ access to cheap funding

•   FT: Germany sets out €16bn aid package to counter soaring energy costs

•   FT: Sunak hints at more UK energy bills relief in the autumn

•   FT: Rishi Sunak offers the obligatory Brexit bonus

•   FT: Rishi Sunak’s tax-cutting claims challenged by UK think-tanks

•   FT: Government needs to ‘do more’ on cost of living crisis, says Johnson

•   FT: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks fierce debate in China

•   FT: Four Russian state employees charged with hacking energy sector

•   FT: Top oil traders warn prices could breach $200 a barrel

•   FT: Energy execs pin slow growth on Wall Street

•   FT: Renault suspends Russia business and looks at options for AvtoVaz stake

•   FT: Geely questions future in Russia despite opening for China’s carmakers

•   FT: Oligarchs, power and profits: the history of BP in Russia

•   Bloomberg: World Economy Set to Slow on War’s ‘Strong Headwinds,’ UN Says

※   UNCTAD: Trade and Development Report 2021 Update (March 2022)

•   Bloomberg: NATO Boosts Forces in East Amid Chemical Incidents Warning

•   Bloomberg: EU to Debate Ways to Drain Putin’s War Chest of Energy Funds

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Waller Says Inflation Measures Risk Understating Housing Costs

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Evans Says ‘Open’ to Half-Point Interest-Rate Hike

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Union Chief Cautions Fed Against ‘Rashly’ Raising Rates

•   Bloomberg: Summers Says Fed’s Record of Soft Landings Is Not Relevant to Today

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says He Would Be ‘Fortunate’ With Trump Rematch in 2024

•   Bloomberg: Putin’s War to Wipe Out 15 Years of Russian Economic Growth

•   Bloomberg: China Struggles to Keep Growth Momentum Strong as Risks Escalate

•   Bloomberg: China Sees ‘Unprecedented’ Capital Outflow Since War, IIF Says

•   Bloomberg: China Is Quietly Taking Cheap Russian Crude as India Buys More

•   Bloomberg: China’s Xi Leaves Zelenskiy Out of Ukraine Diplomatic Push

•   Bloomberg: Experts See China Stuck in a Slowly Evolving Covid-Zero Loop

•   Bloomberg: China Builders Face Worst Earnings in Decade With Audit Woes

•   Bloomberg: Lula’s Lead Over Bolsonaro Narrows in Brazil’s Presidential Race

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Central Bank Chief Throws Cold Water on June Rate Hike

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Says Speculation of Deal on China Stock Listings Is Premature

•   Bloomberg: Yen’s Unraveling Risks Collapse to 1990 Level as Traders Pile On

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Targets Russia’s Giant Stash of Gold in New Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: German Energy Group Says Gas Supply Is About to Deteriorate

•   Bloomberg: Natural Gas Consumption is Growing Faster Than Oil

•   Bloomberg: China EV Maker Nio Misses Estimates Amid Supply Pressures

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE OPEC officials tell EU of unease about proposed ban on Russian oil, sources say

•   Reuters: Four weeks of war scar Russia's economy

•   Reuters: COVID pandemic fuelled 2021 population drop in 73% of U.S. counties

•   Reuters: Goldman raises US Treasury yield forecasts on more hawkish Fed

•   Reuters: Freeze and seize? EU struggles to target oligarchs' assets

•   Reuters: ECB to weigh more bond buying if war crashes economy -Schnabel

•   Reuters: ECB's Centeno says recession not in ECB's scenario despite Ukraine

•   Reuters: Iran's foreign minister says nuclear deal can be reached if U.S. is pragmatic

•   Reuters: Iran's foreign minister says Riyadh sending mixed messages on normalisation

•   Reuters: BOJ policymaker warns of risks to Japan's recovery from Ukraine crisis

•   Reuters: BOJ's Kataoka says weak yen positive for economy

•   Reuters: China faces challenges supplying Russia with alumina - analysts

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. Treasury market pain amplifies worry about liquidity

•   CNBC: India is in a sweet spot, courted by the Quad, China and Russia

•   CNBC: Why don’t kids get Covid badly? Scientists are unraveling one of the pandemic’s biggest mysteries

•   CNBC: BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who oversees $10 trillion, says Russia-Ukraine war is ending globalization

•   SCMP: China welcomes US tariff exemptions, but ‘symbolic move’ fails to tackle fundamental trade issues

•   Caixin: China’s ‘No-Limit’ Tie with Russia Has Bottom Line, China Envoy Says

•   Caixin: Economists Explain Why Foreign Investment in China’s Manufacturing Hasn’t Returned to Pre-Pandemic Levels

•   Caixin: Analysis: Is Hong Kong Following Singapore in Living With Covid-19?

•   Nikkei Asia: From chip shortages to war: Automakers grapple with supply chain disruption

•   매경(P1): [단독] '월소득 200만원 미만' 10명중 6명, 尹 뽑았다

•   매경: [단독] 비방전 넘쳐났지만…결국 부동산

•   매경(P1): 코로나 2년 '고용없는 성장'…임금 14% 뛰고 고용 제자리

•   매경: 평균임금 가장 높고 월급 오르는 속도도 남달라…이곳 직원들 일할 맛 나겠네

•   매경: 삼성전자, 내수 10% 늘때 수출 20% 증가

•   매경: 코로나로 기업 고용 갈렸다…반도체 IT 확 늘고, 유통 호텔 확 줄고

•   매경: '탈원전 폐기' 공약 발맞춰…신한울 건설중단 현황 보고

•   매경: 전속고발권, 폐지보다는 보완에 무게

•   매경: 차기정부 '文 한국판 뉴딜' 예산 깎는다

•   매경: [단독] 4차산업혁명委, 대통령 직속 디지털혁신委로 확대

•   매경: "경제안보 중심 외교부 조직 개편을"

•   매경: [단독] 정권말 탈탄소 강제할당…발전공기업 '악'

•   매경: "물가상승·경기침체 이중고…균형있는 통화정책 고민중"

•   매경: [단독] 국민연금 대표소송 재시동…소위원회 꾸려 내달초 논의

•   한경(P1): 기아, 25년 만에 국내 공장 짓는다…'미래 먹거리' 과감한 투자

•   한경: "국채 발행없는 손실보상"에…기재부 "지출 구조조정만으론 불가능"

•   한경: 심교언 부동산 TF팀장, 임대차법 손본다

•   한경: 외교부 "美 주도 IPEF 적극 환영"

•   한경: 尹, 초대 총리 내달초 지명할 듯…권영세·김한길·박용만 등 물망

•   서경(P1): [단독] 자원개발 만시지탄…해외투자 족쇄 푼다

•   서경: [단독]정부 조직개편 '중폭·소폭' 두가지 안으로 압축

•   서경: GTX 뚫린다고 공시가 72% 치솟아…송도·시흥 2주택자 보유세 4배 뛰어

•   서경: "집주인 보유세 1% 늘면, 임차인이 증가분 30% 떠안아"

•   서경: 상속 받은건데…일시적 2주택자도 稅폭탄

•   서경: 공공노조 조직률 70%…이사회 발목 잡고 의사결정 편향 불보듯

•   서경: 근로시간 유연화 '전 사업장 도입' 오해로 노사대립 심화…부작용 없도록 세심한 손질 필요

•   서경: 주택공급 충분하다더니…서울 주택보급률 8년만에 최저

•   서경: 인수위 압박에…전세대출 금리 낮춘 은행권

•   서경: 금융위, 오늘 인수위 업무보고…주담대 규제 풀릴까

•   서경: 코로나19 확산·우크라 침공에… 비상경영 나선전 국 주요 항만

•   조선(P1): 4년전 약속 헌신짝… 북한, ICBM 도발

•   조선: 완치됐는데 회식? 사흘 더 참으세요... 확진 1000만 시대 Q&A

•   조선: “노인 빈곤율, OECD 평균의 3배… 국민연금 개혁에 앞선 선결과제”

•   조선비즈: “어제의 적은 오늘의 동지” 삼성·LG, 드디어 손 잡는다…2분기 OLED 공급 전망

•   IT조선: [단독] 최태원 SK 회장, 가상자산 사업 진두지휘..."NFT·ICO·IEO 다각도 검토"

•   TV조선: [단독] '탈원전' 한전공대, 개교 한달만에 원전 과정 신설키로

•   중앙: [단독] 3선 장제원, 尹정부 초대 대통령 비서실장 유력

•   중앙: 예대금리차 30개월 만에 최대…‘공시제도’ 도입 힘 실리나

•   중앙: DSR 규제 강화로 7월 이후엔 대출한도 37~60%로 줄어든다

•   중앙: 경윳값이 왜 이래…휘발유보다 비싸네

•   동아(P1): 인수위 “신한울 3, 4호기 건설 재개 조속히 검토”

•   문화(P1): 가계 빚이 실소득보다 1.7배 많다

※   한국은행: 「금융안정 상황」(2022년 3월)

•   문화: [단독] 尹, 초대 국무총리 내달 10일쯤 지명할듯

•   문화: 경총 “尹정부, 산업현장 법질서 확립·노사관계 법제도 선진화 시급”

•   문화: 산업부, 호주와 ‘58억 규모 수소 공동프로젝트’ 추진키로

•   한국(P1): [단독] 인수위 "먹는 치료제, 외국과 스와핑 하자" 사망자 최다에 대책 고심

•   서울: 정부, 美와 철강 협상 또 ‘빈손 귀국’… 한국 홀대 논란

•   한겨레: 오미크론 위세에 곳곳 ‘인력난’…일 몰린 비확진자들 “인생 최대 위기”

•   한겨레: ‘기업 우려’ 전달한 인수위, ‘시행 두 달’ 중대재해법 흔드나

•   경향(P1): "하루 30만~40만명 확진, 한달 갈 수도"

※   유행 정점이 지난 것 아니냐는 관측이 제기된다.국내 연구팀들의 수리모형 예측은 이 같은 관측을 뒷받침한다

•   경향: 이 수소 충전소는 왜 쌀까…그 비결은 ‘음식물쓰레기’

•   머니투데이(P1): "집값 내가 올린 것도 아닌데...보유세, 산 가격에 매기자"

•   머니투데이(P1): 1주년 최태원 상의회장, "새정부 경제정책 민관 함께 만들자

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 산은, 부산 이전하나

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 삼성家, 전자 지분 1조3천억'블록딜'

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 대출 풀리고 稅부담 줄고…"이제 이사 가자" [부동산시장 다시 꿈틀]

•   아시아경제(P1): 세종은 올해, 서울은 작년…'땜질 공시가' 적용

•   아시아경제: [단독]규제완화 후퇴?… 인수위, 재건축 안전진단 면제공약 재검토

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 尹정부, `코드정책` 탄소중립 메스 댄다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 우크라이나 사태 한 달…산업계 생산 늦추고 공장 가동 차질

•   디지털타임스: 기업 71.3% "리스크 완화될 것"

•   디지털타임스: LCD와 가격차 30만원대뿐… OLED, TV시장 세대교체 `눈앞`

•   이데일리: [단독]삼성·SK하이닉스 지원책 나온다…尹 반도체 대책 시동

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 32만8909명 확진…어제보다 5만1368명 적어

•   연합: 안보리, 25일 北 ICBM 발사 관련 공개회의…2017년 이후 처음

•   연합: 국토부, 오후 인수위 업무보고…공급확대-재건축 규제완화 등 중심

•   전자신문(P1): LG엔솔, 북미 전기차배터리 공장 6.5조 투입

•   전자신문: 현대차-보스턴 다이내믹스, 차기 로봇 공동개발 프로젝트 가동

•   전자신문: 연료전지 핵심부품 '탄소 복합체 분리판' 국산화...에너지연이 원천기술 개발

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Anne O. Krueger): How to Use Economic Sanctions Wisely

•   Project Syndicate(Jinho Choi, Kimi Xu Jiang): Is Japan at Risk of a Downgrade?

•   Project Syndicate(Anders Åslund): Russia Must Pay Reparations

•   Project Syndicate(Hippolyte Fofack): Will Sanctioning Russia Fuel Financial Contagion?

•   FT(Editorial Board): The hidden risks of rising rates and high house prices

•   FT(Editorial Board): Holding Russia to account for war crimes

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Market calm shows that wartime doesn’t mean volatility

•   FT(Edward Luce): The west is rash to assume the world is on its side over Ukraine

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): How to pay for the war in Ukraine

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): China under pressure, a debate

•   FT(Simon Kuper): We are living in an era of global fragility

•   FT(Howard Marks): The pendulum of globalisation is swinging back

•   FT(Lesia Dubenko): It is in Nato’s interests to help Ukraine

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Ukraine Can Win With Enough Help

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): And Now, Gasoline ‘Stimulus’ Checks

•   WSJ(David Cameron): Boycott the G-20 if Putin Is Going

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Is Biden Leading On Ukraine?

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): 2022 Midterm Strategy Pulls Democrats Apart

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): Can the West Unite Against Rising Inflation Too?

•   WSJ(Mark Kimmitt): Hit Putin’s Generals With Sanctions, Too

•   NYT(Lulu Garcia-Navarro, Thomas L. Friedman, Ross Douthat, Farah Stockman): Four Opinion Writers on Ukraine: ‘If This War Drags On, We Are in a Completely New World’

•   NYT(Farhad Manjoo): We’re in a Fossil Fuel War. Biden Should Say So.

•   NYT(Oleg Ustenko): Thanks to Europe, Putin’s War Is Paying for Itself

•   WP(Greg Sargent): How Putin badly misjudged the West, as explained by a Russia expert

•   WP(Paul Waldman, Greg Sargent): Putin’s war and high gas prices hand Democrats an opening on climate

•   WP(Jude Blanchette): The worse things go for Putin in Ukraine, the more China will back him

•   WP(Bi-khim Hsiao): Ukraine has inspired Taiwan. We must stand against authoritarianism.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Will Russians Use Crypto to Bust Sanctions?

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Putin Isn’t Crazy Enough to Use Nukes. Or Is He?

•   Bloomberg(John Micklethwait, Adrian Wooldridge): Putin and Xi Exposed the Great Illusion of Capitalism

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Oil Tax Cuts Help the Kremlin and Punish Ukraine

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): All That’s Stopping a Full-Blown Food Crisis? Rice

•   Bloomberg(Jenny Paris): The Bond Market Is the One Behind the Curve Now

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): ESG Means No More Buying the World a Coke

•   CNN(Nikos Tsafos): Russia's days as an energy superpower are coming to an end

•   Fox News(Chuck DeVore): Russia-Ukraine war's next phase – 4 things to watch