Global Economic Monitor 220331

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rally fizzles, bond markets ponder risks for U.S. economy

※   Euro STOXX 600 falls 0.6%

※   U.S. bond market signals economic pain ahead

※   Treasury 10-year yields lower

※   Ukraine-Russia negotiations earlier buoyed stocks

※   Wall Street down

•   Metals: Aluminium rises on revived Russian supply fears, weaker dollar

•   Grains: Wheat, corn bounce as Ukraine conflict persists

•   한국: 우크라 협상 진전 기대 속 코스피 2,740대 강보합 마감

[Indicators]

•   US Q4 GDP(final): U.S. economic growth accelerates in fourth-quarter; corporate profits slow

•   US Mar. Employment(ADP): U.S. Companies Added 455,000 Jobs in March, ADP Report Shows

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage refinance demand plunges 60%, as rates hit their highest level since 2018

•   US Weekly Gasoline demand: U.S. Gasoline Demand Drops for Third-Straight Week

•   Eurozone Mar. Economic sentiment: Russian Invasion Deals Blow to European Business Confidence

•   Germany·Spain Mar. CPI: Inflation in Germany and Spain reaches record levels, driven by Russia’s war.

•   Japan Feb. Retail sales: Japan’s Retail Sales Drop Adds to Fears of Stalled Recovery

•   한국 3월 산업활동: 코로나 대유행에 2월 생산 두달째 감소…"경기회복 주춤"

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia Plays Down Progress in Peace Talks, Intensifies Attacks in Eastern Ukraine

※   Russian forces also struck around Kyiv, while Ukraine said it fought off advances in the eastern Donbas region

•   WSJ: Europe’s Expulsion of Russian Officials Aims to Disrupt Alleged Spy Networks

•   WSJ: EU Is Considering New Russian Bank Sanctions, Diplomats Say

※   European Union officials are also seeking to stop oligarchs’ families and use of cryptocurrencies from undermining sanctions

•   WSJ: Europe Woos Qatar for an Alternative to Russian Gas

•   WSJ: The U.S. Sanctions a Russian Oligarch—but Exempts His Companies

•   WSJ: Biden’s Global Quest for Oil Triggers Political Pushback

•   WSJ: How High Energy Prices Could Help Both the Climate and the U.S.

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Launches Website Aimed at Adapting to Covid-19 Risks

•   WSJ: Despite High Covid-19 Case Counts, Asian Nations Learn to Live With the Virus

•   WSJ: Shanghai’s Covid Surge Sinks Hopes of Speedy Reopening

※   Authorities said Wednesday there were close to 6,000 new local cases in China’s financial capital

•   WSJ: SEC Proposes New Disclosure Requirements for SPACs

•   WSJ: Big Stock Sales Are Supposed to Be Secret. The Numbers Indicate They Aren’t.

•   WSJ: Putin’s Scheme to Rally the Ruble Could Run Out of Gas

•   WSJ: The LNG Export Boom Is Draining U.S. Natural-Gas Supplies and Lifting Prices

•   WSJ: Waymo to Send Driverless Cars Through San Francisco

•   WSJ: This Robot Promises to Make the Backpack Obsolete. Do You Need One?

•   NYT: U.S. intelligence suggests that Putin’s advisers misinformed him on Ukraine.

•   NYT: OPEC and Russia are set to meet as the war continues to roil the oil market.

•   NYT: Covid Vaccines Did Not Protect Adolescents as Effectively During the Omicron Surge

•   WP: How Ukraine could lose land but still win the war with Russia

•   WP: Why Russia’s military is bogged down by logistics in Ukraine

•   WP: Ukraine’s refugee exodus tops 4 million — nearly 10% of prewar population

•   WP: Myanmar’s rebellion, divided, outgunned and outnumbered, fights on

•   FT: Germany and Austria plan for gas rationing over payment stand-off with Russia

※   Berlin activates emergency law as west refuses to comply with Moscow’s demand for roubles

•   FT: US casts doubt on new Kremlin claims of curtailed Kyiv offensive

•   FT: Johnson and Raab at odds over partygate scandal

•   FT: UK unlikely to authorise big expansion of onshore wind farms

•   FT: How would Joe Biden’s proposed ‘billionaire tax’ work?

•   FT: Biden to use Korean war-era powers to boost supply of EV battery minerals

•   FT: Beijing moves to strengthen Moscow ties in wake of Ukraine invasion

•   FT: China reverses roles in arms trade with Russia

•   FT: Japan must hit inflation target via domestic demand, Kishida aide insists

•   FT: Saudi Arabia sends $5bn to help Egypt’s economy

•   FT: War in Ukraine: what explains the calm in global stock markets?

•   FT: Renewable energy pushes ahead of coal for the first time

※   Ember: Global Electricity Review 2022

•   Bloomberg: Russia to Pay $2 Billion Bond in Dollars to Foreign Investors

•   Bloomberg: Russia Offers SWIFT Alternative to India for Ruble Payments

•   Bloomberg: White House Plays Down Yield Curve as U.S. Recession Indicator

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Labor Reshuffle Has More Room to Run, Fueling Higher Wages

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s George Favors ‘Steady, Deliberate’ Series of Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Barkin Says Half-Point Hike Depends on Economy in May

•   Bloomberg: Fed Keeps Wary Eye on Yield Curve While Signaling Hikes on Track

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Trade Chief Says New Focus Needed as China Hasn’t Changed

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Lagarde Says Costs of War Increase the Longer It Lasts

•   Bloomberg: Traders See ECB Raising Its Key Rate to Zero in October

•   Bloomberg: Broadbent Says Traders Should Rely on Data Over BOE Comments

•   Bloomberg: Eight in 10 U.K. Adults Report Rise in Cost of Living in March

•   Bloomberg: U.K.’s Johnson Sees Small Nuclear Reactors Running by 2030

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Covid Cases Edge Back Up as Hospitalizations Rise

•   Bloomberg: Spain to Allow Rationing After Supermarket Shortages

•   Bloomberg: Russian Foreign Minister in China on First Visit Since War

•   Bloomberg: Borscht Inflation Shows Russia’s Price Shocks Hard to Escape

•   Bloomberg: China’s PBOC Vows to Boost Confidence, Support Economy

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda Plays Down Yen Impact of Bond-Buying Operations

•   Bloomberg: Jokowi Reiterates He Will Obey Constitution on Term Extension

•   Bloomberg: South Africa’s Coronavirus Death Toll Passes Grim Milestone

•   Bloomberg: Yield-Curve Inversion Rarely Upends a Stocks Rally, Truist Says

•   Bloomberg: Global Corporate Bonds Lost $1 Trillion, and Risks Are Rising

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Mulls Snubbing IEA Oil Data as Political Rift Deepens

•   Bloomberg: China’s Lockdowns Are Hurting Electronics Demand, TSMC Head Says

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Profits Soar as U.S. Corporations Have Best Year Since 1950

•   Reuters: OPEC+ likely to stick to existing oil output deal, sources say

•   Reuters: World Bank chief says Gulf producers role critical in dampening oil volatility

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Russia to keep gas contract currency unchanged in rouble switch, sources say

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE U.S. warns India, others against sharp rise in Russian oil imports -official

•   Reuters: WHO says most likely scenario shows COVID severity will decrease over time

•   Reuters: ECB tells banks to cut lending to indebted borrowers after binge

•   Reuters: Saudi Arabia may raise May crude prices to Asia to new record levels

•   Reuters: Factbox: Recession after fleeting yield curve inversion? It is complicated

•   Reuters: Analysis: Cost of living woes boost "phoenix" Le Pen in race for French presidency

•   AP: How China’s TikTok, Facebook influencers push propaganda

•   CNBC: Recession warning from Germany’s top economic advisors as Putin’s gas deadline nears

•   CNBC: Putin might be seen as a ‘mad dictator’ — but he has built powerful barriers to prevent a coup

•   CNBC: EU to pressure China at virtual summit over its stance on Russia-Ukraine war, sources say

•   CNBC: Energy production vs. climate protection: Americans are split along party lines

•   CNBC: 2022 could be Latin America’s year as it fills the economic void left by Russia. Here’s how to play it

•   CNBC: BofA says iPhone demand still strong despite reports of production cutback

•   MarketWatch: What stock-market investors need to know about the bond market’s recession signal

•   Caixin: In Depth: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota group production, overseas sales hit record for February

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Shanghai lockdown affects Xi's plans to promote allies

•   매경(P1): [단독] 인수위 만류에도 또 알박기…주인없는 대우조선 대표 임명

•   매경(P1): [단독] 소형빌라·다세대, 주택 수 합산에서 뺀다

•   매경(P1): 이창용 "경제 3가지 위기 현실화"…美금리인상·우크라·코로나

•   매경(P1): [단독] 구본준 LX 회장 'M&A 본능'

•   매경(P1): 매경이코노미스트賞 박예나·최재원 교수

•   매경: [단독] 작은기업만 퍼주던 'R&D 지원' 대수술

•   매경: [단독] 尹, 청와대 조직 슬림화…정책실장도 없앤다

•   매경: 기재부, 퍼주기 민간지원사업에 칼 댄다

•   매경: 7월부터 국민연금 보험료 최대 2만6100원 인상

•   매경: "가계부채·자영업 대출·부동산 금융이 3대 뇌관"

•   매경: 삼성·美웨스턴디지털 맞손…차세대 스토리지 기술 주도

•   매경: "단숨에 살균·공기청정"…KT, 로봇사업 승부수

•   매경: '쌍용차 인수 무산' 에디슨EV, 상폐 갈림길

•   매경: "쇠젓가락 들고 다녀야하나"…편의점서 일회용품 못쓴다는데

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 폐플라스틱서 기름짜내는 도시유전…'이윤 이상의 가치' 찾는다

•   매경: [Industry Review] 전기차 질주만큼 중요한 내연기관車의 '질서 있는 퇴장'

•   한경(P1): SK하이닉스, 반도체 설계 1위 ARM 인수 검토

•   한경(P1): [단독] 민주당 "다주택 양도세 장기 보유자엔 부담 완화"

•   한경: [단독] 선거 다가오자…민주 "다주택 양도세 보유기간 따라 완화"

•   한경(P1): 원자재 가격 요동…ETN 10조 돌파

•   한경: 기재부, 추경 난색에…尹측 "1초도 아깝다"

•   한경: '금융硏 출신' 尹정부 경제정책 주축으로 부상

•   한경: 금리 오르자 자금 조달 망설이는 기업들

•   한경: 집무실부터 추경까지 대립각… 민주 ‘反尹 드라이브’

•   서경(P1): [단독] 인수위 '배드뱅크' 추진…"291조 자영업 대출 관리"

•   서경(P1): 美석좌 앤드루 여 "尹정부, 인·태 지역서 韓의 안보 역할 훨씬 늘려야"

•   서경(P1): 기업 72% "ESG 중 환경이 가장 중요"

•   서경: 혁신기술에 규제부터 찾는 韓…글로벌 빅테크에 '안방'도 내줄판

•   서경: "돈 많이 푼다고 혁신생태계 조성 안돼…기득권집단 폐쇄적 카르텔 해소 시급"

•   서경: [단독]경제사령탑에 '협치 적임' 추경호 유력…최중경·임종룡도 거론

•   서경: [단독] ‘인수위 정책 제안’ 전경련이 가장 빨랐다

•   서경: 반도체 업황 개선…"6월부터 삼성전자의 시간"

•   서경: [단독] 4.4조 'IFC 쟁탈전'…갤러리아도 가세

•   조선(P1): 새정부 총리 한덕수 유력

•   조선(P1): 규제 풀다 집값 뛸라… 尹의 ‘부동산 딜레마’

•   조선: 재건축은 벌써 꿈틀… 보유세 낮추자니 다주택자 집 안팔까봐 걱정

•   조선: 대출규제 완화도 문제… LTV 풀어도 DSR이 발목

•   조선: 민주당 반대에도… 인수위는 연일 “임대차 3법 폐지”

•   조선비즈: EU 기업 공급망 실사 의무화에 韓 긴장… “110개사 영향권”

•   조선비즈: 벌크선 운임 ‘롤러코스터’… 혼란스러운 건화물 시장

•   조선비즈: 文정부, 기업 매각 줄줄이 실패… 尹정부 ‘발등에 불’ 됐다

•   조선비즈: 두산중공업 등 45개사, 오는 4월 의무보유등록 해제된다

•   중앙: 문 정부서 나랏빚 400조 넘게 늘어, 1인당 2000만원 육박

•   중앙: 미국까지 불똥 튄 외교부·산업부 싸움…인수위도 경고

•   동아(P1): [단독]“규제 개혁, 巨野 손잡고 2년내 승부 봐야”

•   동아(P1): 인수위 “확진 정점 지나면 영업시간 제한 전면폐지”

•   동아: [단독]“일자리 창출이 최우선 과제… 부총리급 규제개혁부 설치를”

•   문화(P1): “노동경직성 해소해야 일자리 는다”

•   서울: 동네 빵·칼국수도 오르나… “우크라發 밀값 폭등에 버티기 힘들어”

•   서울: [단독] 檢, 발전사 후임 사장 특혜 채용 의혹 겨눴다

•   서울: “올여름 새 변이 출현 가능성… 3차 접종 효력 떨어져 4차 논의를”

•   세계: “경쟁제한 우려 없다”… SK하이닉스 ‘키파운드리’ 인수 승인

•   한겨레(P1): [단독] 미·일, 한·미·일 3국 군사훈련 거듭 제안…문재인 정부 ‘수용 불가’

•   한겨레: 전경련 “집무실 이전땐 GDP 3.3조↑”…재계조차 “낯간지러워”

•   경향(P1): 전 세계 풍력·태양광 에너지 비중 10.3%…한국은 4.7%

•   경향: ‘미래 먹거리’ AI 로봇 시장 경쟁 가열

•   머니투데이: "한달 만에 또 두줄, 재감염 아니래요"…통계에서 빠진 사람들

•   헤럴드경제(P1): ‘세종 제2집무실’ 속도…제2관저 설치 검토

•   헤럴드경제: 尹도 힘 실은 전기차 대중화…주유소 ‘충전하는 날’ 빨라진다

•   헤럴드경제: 인수위-정부, ‘52시간제 유연화’ 검토 착수

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 중대재해법 '한계'…"처벌보다 지원 늘려야" [현산 8개월 영업정지]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 원·엔 환율 여전히 900원대 그쳐... 장기화땐 韓기업 수출경쟁력 약화 [일본경제 '엔저 부메랑']

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 1만명 항체양성률 조사… 코로나 ‘빅데이터’로 관리한다[새정부 과학방역 로드맵]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 대기업 주도 M&A 활발… 작년 결합금액 33조로 182% 급증

※   공정위: 2021년 기업결합 심사 동향 및 주요 특징

•   아시아경제(P1): '탈원전 백지화' 외친 尹…‘에너지 헌법’ 수립 2년 앞당기나

•   아시아경제: ‘에너지 헌법’ 대수술 예고한 산업부…탈원전 대못 뽑는다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 홍남기 "물가상황 엄중… 모든수단 동원 대응할 것"

•   디지털타임스: 철강제품 가격 또 줄인상… 제조업 `공포의 4월`

•   이데일리: 한노총, 인수위 만나 "尹 노동공약 반대"…강행시 대정부 투쟁 예고

•   이데일리: 尹당선인 신규 원전 추진 우려에…지자체 벌써부터 `들썩`

•   이데일리: 국내 LPG값 폭등 조짐...“kg당 200원 안팎 인상되나”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 31만3096명 확진…어제보다 10만1072명 줄어

•   이뉴스투데이: [단독] 유가 폭등에 LNG 발전단가 300% 올랐다…“탈원전 여파”

•   노컷뉴스: [단독]靑 경제수석, '산업부 블랙리스트' 당시 총괄 위치

•   전자신문(P1): 중소 팹리스, AI반도체 7200억 ‘그림의 떡’

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa): Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?

•   Project Syndicate(Richard Haass): Winners and Losers in Putin’s War

•   Project Syndicate(Shamil Ibragimov): The War in Ukraine Is a Battle of Principles

•   Project Syndicate(Yves Leterme): COVID-19’s Lessons for Democracies

•   FT(Editorial Board): The pitfalls of a peace deal for Ukraine

•   FT(Gillian Tett): The true cost of the west’s attention deficit disorder

•   FT(Tony Barber): Ukraine war is an opportunity for Europe to reform itself

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): ESG, Russia, and the SEC

•   FT(Anne Simpson): Why the SEC is right to make climate risk disclosure mandatory

•   FT(Helen Thomas): This crisis could be the making of Europe’s carbon market

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The EU and UK’s trade policies are both weakened by Brexit

•   FT(Lex): US wealth tax: Biden seeks deepest and most tightly stitched pockets

•   FT(Lex): Russian gas: Putin’s rouble move will damage the currency long term

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): What’s Down With the Yen?

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Taxes, Taxes and More Taxes

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): America’s Declining Military

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Biden Saves Ukraine From Russia—by the Inch

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Biden’s Gaffes Grate on Voters

•   WSJ(Joshua Muravchik): International Order Is on the Line in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Bruce Gilley): Ditch the Global Minimum Tax Grab

•   WSJ(Samir Puri): Russia Could Still Salvage Victory in Ukraine

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): How to Defeat Putin and Save the Planet

•   NYT(Bret Stephens): What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

•   WP(Greg Sargent): Trump could end up getting away with all of it

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Markets Need to Lose the ‘Peace in Our Time’ Reflex

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): Biden’s Billionaire Tax Would Punish Long-Term Investors

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael, Sam Fazeli): How Does Covid Affect Diabetes, the Brain and Long Covid?

•   Bloomberg(Paul J. Davies, Jonathan Levin): Yield Curve Inversion: Banks Aren’t Sweating Bond Market's Red Flag Yet

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Enria, Sam Woods): The ECB and BoE Issue Rare Joint Warning on Excessive Leverage

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Enria, Sam Woods): The ECB and the BOE Issue a Joint Warning on Excessive Leverage

•   CNN(Senator Markey, Mark Wolfe): Ditching fossil fuels makes even more sense now

•   Fox News(Michael R. Pompeo): War in Ukraine shows why world needs US energy dominance