Thursday, March 31, 2022

Global Economic Monitor 220401

(Introduction)

[Markets]


[Indicators]
•   US Feb. Personal spending·income: Inflation Weighed on Consumer Spending Growth in February
※   Annual inflation rose to 6.4% using the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge
※   China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in March, down from 50.2 in February
•   India Feb. Core industry production: India's Feb infrastructure output grows 3.7% year on year
•   한국 2월 금융기관 가중평균금리: 가계대출 금리 연 4% 목전…6% 넘는 주담대도 나왔다
•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): "대통령 집무실 온다"…용산 아파트값 9주 만에 상승 전환


[News]
※   Western officials say there are signs Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t being told the truth about the war’s progress
※   Russians’ departure ends a five-week occupation of the site of the 1986 disaster that killed more than 30 people and contaminated the surrounding countryside
※   An analysis by a top regional development bank sees Ukraine’s economy shrinking more but rebounding sharply next year
※   Cartel agrees to keep small output increase despite rocketing prices
※   U.S. will tap record 180 million barrels over six months; oil industry says president should instead remove barriers to energy investment
•   NYT: Two Covid Problems
※   Russia’s president threatens supply disruption unless target nations comply


[Opinions]
•   Project Syndicate(Simon Johnson, Oleg Ustenko): Russia Is Finished as a Major Energy Power
•   Project Syndicate(Bertrand Badré, Benoit Mercereau): Investing for Impact and Profit
•   Project Syndicate(Ricardo Hausmann): How to Eat Russia’s Oil Lunch
•   Project Syndicate(Maurice Obstfeld): The G20 Must Speak Truth to Putin
•   Project Syndicate(Nina L. Khrushcheva): Putin's War Will Destroy Russia
•   Project Syndicate(Daniel J. Arbess): Finding Putin's Money
•   FT(Editorial Board): Putin’s gas ploy may rebound on Russia
•   FT(Petro Poroshenko): How the west can help Ukraine next
•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The end of globalisation as we know it
•   FT(Costas Milas): Higher UK rates? Not so fast.
•   WSJ(Kimberley A. Strassel): Why We Are Covid Broke
•   NYT(Spencer Bokat-Lindell): Will the Ukraine War Spell the End of Globalization?
•   NYT(Olga Tokariuk, Tikhon Dzyadko): What Putin’s Propaganda Looks Like From Russia and Ukraine
•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Ukraine War Hastens Investor Migration to Private Markets
•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): America’s Oil Reserve Weapon Risks Misfiring
•   Bloomberg(Clive Crook): Europe Should Tax Russian Gas, Not Ban It
•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert, Marcus Ashworth): Tackling Inflation: Zero Is a Good Destination for ECB Rates

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Global Economic Monitor 220331

(Introduction)

[Markets]
※   Euro STOXX 600 falls 0.6%
※   U.S. bond market signals economic pain ahead
※   Treasury 10-year yields lower
※   Ukraine-Russia negotiations earlier buoyed stocks
※   Wall Street down


[Indicators]
•   US Weekly Gasoline demand: U.S. Gasoline Demand Drops for Third-Straight Week
•   Eurozone Mar. Economic sentiment: Russian Invasion Deals Blow to European Business Confidence


[News]
※   Russian forces also struck around Kyiv, while Ukraine said it fought off advances in the eastern Donbas region
※   European Union officials are also seeking to stop oligarchs’ families and use of cryptocurrencies from undermining sanctions
※   Authorities said Wednesday there were close to 6,000 new local cases in China’s financial capital
※   Berlin activates emergency law as west refuses to comply with Moscow’s demand for roubles


[Opinions]
•   Project Syndicate(Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa): Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?
•   Project Syndicate(Richard Haass): Winners and Losers in Putin’s War
•   Project Syndicate(Shamil Ibragimov): The War in Ukraine Is a Battle of Principles
•   Project Syndicate(Yves Leterme): COVID-19’s Lessons for Democracies
•   FT(Editorial Board): The pitfalls of a peace deal for Ukraine
•   FT(Robert Armstrong): ESG, Russia, and the SEC
•   WSJ(Editorial Board): What’s Down With the Yen?
•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Taxes, Taxes and More Taxes
•   WSJ(Editorial Board): America’s Declining Military
•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Biden Saves Ukraine From Russia—by the Inch
•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Biden’s Gaffes Grate on Voters
•   WSJ(Joshua Muravchik): International Order Is on the Line in Ukraine
•   WSJ(Bruce Gilley): Ditch the Global Minimum Tax Grab
•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): How to Defeat Putin and Save the Planet
•   NYT(Bret Stephens): What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?
•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael, Sam Fazeli): How Does Covid Affect Diabetes, the Brain and Long Covid?
•   Bloomberg(Paul J. Davies, Jonathan Levin): Yield Curve Inversion: Banks Aren’t Sweating Bond Market's Red Flag Yet
•   Bloomberg(Andrea Enria, Sam Woods): The ECB and BoE Issue Rare Joint Warning on Excessive Leverage
•   Bloomberg(Andrea Enria, Sam Woods): The ECB and the BOE Issue a Joint Warning on Excessive Leverage
•   CNN(Senator Markey, Mark Wolfe): Ditching fossil fuels makes even more sense now
•   Fox News(Michael R. Pompeo): War in Ukraine shows why world needs US energy dominance