Global Economic Monitor 231002

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stocks edge down with data boost fading, shutdown and quarter-end in focus

•   Metals: Aluminium rises as traders square positions ahead of quarter-end, stocks decline

•   Grains: Chicago wheat hits 3-year low, soy and corn drop after US grain data

[Indicators]

•   US Aug. PCE Price: Underlying Prices Cooled in August, Giving the Fed More Evidence of Softer Inflation

※   Americans spent more on expensive gasoline and services last month

•   US Aug. Goods trade balance: U.S. trade deficit in goods shrinks 7.3% — and might give small lift to GDP

•   US Weekly Rig count: US drillers cut oil and gas rigs for third quarter in a row -Baker Hughes

•   Eurozone Sep. CPI: Eurozone inflation hits 2-year low as US price pressures ease

•   Germany Aug. Retail sales: German retail sales fall unexpectedly in August

•   Germany Sep. Employment: German unemployment rises less than expected in September

•   UK Q2 GDP(final): UK economy makes stronger recovery from pandemic than previously estimated

•   UK Aug. Money supply : UK money supply contracts as higher interest rates weigh on lending

•   China Sep. Home sales: China Home Sales Saw Mild Recovery in September Amid Policy Push

•   China Sep. PMI: China’s Economy Picks Up Steam for Holiday

•   Japan Sep. Tokyo CPI: Tokyo Inflation Slows, Offering Support for BOJ Price Outlook

•   Vietnam Q3 GDP: Vietnam’s Economy Picks Up Speed as Exports Rise Again

[World]

•   WSJ: Congress Averts Government Shutdown in Surprise Breakthrough

※   Bipartisan measure to extend funding until mid-November is passed by the House and Senate and signed by President Biden

•   WSJ: Congress Stopped a Shutdown, but Fights on Ukraine, Border Intensify

•   WSJ: Why Consumers Are Mad About Inflation Even Though It Has Fallen

•   WSJ: Biden Breaks Campaign Promise in Allowing New Offshore Drilling

•   WSJ: In U.S. Fights Over Ukraine Aid, Allies Fear Deeper Global Harm

•   WSJ: In Poland’s ‘J-Town,’ Soldiers Move Arms to Ukraine as Russian Spies Try to Stop Them

•   WSJ: Evergrande’s New Woes Signal Long Slog for China’s Economy

※   A prolonged downturn in the country’s massive property market will likely weigh on growth for months, if not years

•   WSJ: Does China’s Property Bust Make a Financial Crisis Inevitable?

•   WSJ: In Saudi-Israel Deal, Palestinians Pose Serious Challenge

•   WSJ: Bombing Outside Mosque in Pakistan Kills at Least 51

•   WSJ: A New Interest-Rate Regime Has Begun. These Are the Market’s Winners and Losers.

•   WSJ: Bonds Track Toward Another Year of Dismal Returns

•   WSJ: America’s Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes

•   WSJ: Wall Street Expects Hot Oil Prices to Cool Down

•   WSJ: Inflation Steps Back on the Gas

•   WSJ: Apple’s Latest China Challenge: A Crackdown That Could Shrink Its App Store

•   WSJ: Apple to Address iPhone 15 Overheating Issues in iOS 17 Software Update

•   WSJ: Elon Musk’s Wish: Fewer Rules, Except for Robots

•   WSJ: There’s No Soft Landing for These Businesses

•   WSJ: For Tesla’s Cybertruck, Another Sales Launch Date Comes and Goes

•   NYT: Why High Interest Rates and Energy Prices Are Stressing the Economy

•   NYT: To Many Americans, Government Dysfunction Is the New Normal

•   NYT: How China’s Property Crisis Is Testing Its Too-Big-to-Fail Banks

•   NYT: Ukraine’s War of Drones Runs Into an Obstacle: China

•   WP: What the world would look like without fossil fuels

•   WP: As trial looms, Sam Bankman-Fried’s own words may pose his biggest risk

•   FT: EU payment rules shake-up will prompt price rises, retailers warn

•   FT: Merkel’s policies left Germany too reliant on Russian gas, adviser admits

•   FT: Germans shrug off economic gloom at booming Oktoberfest

•   FT: Bank of England warns lenders over loan loss estimates

•   FT: New EU trade rules could snarl Northern Ireland supply chains, companies warn

•   FT: Sunak will not commit to tax cuts as fractious Tory conference starts

•   FT: Turkey hits Kurdish sites in northern Iraq after suicide bombing in Ankara

•   FT: South Korea says China must push Pyongyang to curb nuclear plans

•   FT: Regulators turn up heat on shadow banks after market blow-ups

•   FT: Korea Zinc expands nickel production to meet US battery demand

•   FT: Extreme weather hits lovers of sweet treats in the pocket

•   Bloomberg: 6 Reasons Why a US Recession Is Likely — and Coming Soon

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s New Inflation Outlook Already Seems Outdated, Analysts Say

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Williams Suggests Rate Hikes May Already Be Finished

•   Bloomberg: S&P Says US Growth, Not Debt Rating, to Be Hurt by Shutdown

•   Bloomberg: Biden Economic Dilemma Reaches Arizona TSMC Chip Plant in Union Fight

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s War on Carbon Goes Global as Border Tax Comes Into Play

•   Bloomberg: ECB Rate-Cut Bets Are ‘Stretched’ Compared With Fed, BofA Says

•   Bloomberg: Villeroy Says Current Level of ECB Interest Rates Is Appropriate

•   Bloomberg: China-Germany Ties Can Help Fight Stagflation, He Lifeng Says

•   Bloomberg: China Economy Improved Further in September, Satellite Data Show

•   Bloomberg: Indians Given More Time to Find, Deposit $1.7 Billion Worth of 2,000 Rupee Notes

•   Bloomberg: Vietnam Aims for 6% Growth This Year in Best-Case Scenario

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia Sees Swing to Budget Deficit as Spending Jumps

•   Bloomberg: Hot Job Markets Underpin Rally of Latin America’s Biggest Economies

•   Bloomberg: Thailand Sees $4 Billion from China Tourism After Visa Waivers

•   Bloomberg: EU Begins Early-Stage Probe Into AI Chip Market Abuses that Nvidia Dominates

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Huawei Takes Revenge as China Catches Up on Semiconductors

•   CNBC: China’s economic activity again weakened in September, China Beige Book survey shows

•   CNBC: Can China’s economy reverse a sluggish 2023 in the last quarter? Here’s what to watch

•   CNBC: Biden’s pro-competition agenda put to the test as net neutrality, tech trials take shape

•   CNBC: How GlobalFoundries aims to remain world’s third-biggest semiconductor foundry

[Korea]

•   대통령실: 추석 연휴에 전방부대 찾은 尹

•   민주당: 이재명, 尹대통령에 민생 영수회담 제안

•   민주당: 민주 원내수석에 '검수완박 주도' 친명 박주민…정책수석 유동수

•   국민의힘: 與, 강서구청장 보선 총력전…"당이 전적으로 뒷받침"

•   정무위(김성주): [단독] “급히 채웠나”···품질관리 지적받은 中小회계법인, 인원은 늘려왔다

•   정무위(송석준): 전세보증금 반환보증 사고 '1년새 5배' 늘었다

•   정무위(윤영덕): 소액긴급자금지원 40대에 집중…"경제위기에 가장이 흔들린다"

•   정무위(윤창현): 공정위 가맹정책 고객만족도 59점…업무 분야 중 '꼴찌'

•   정무위(윤창현): 공정위 작년 로펌에 238건 소송·자문 의뢰…최다 수임은 '지음'

•   정무위(최승재): [빚의 굴레 빠진 청년③]다시 고금리 시대…치솟는 연체율[뉴시스 창사 22년]

•   금감원: ‘검찰 출신 금감원장’ 무섭네… 불법 공매도 박멸 수준

•   금감원: 금감원, 수협중앙회에 과태료…"신용정보 관리 미흡"

•   예보: SVB 파산의 교훈?… “정부가 시장과 소통해야 뱅크런 막는다”

•   주금공: '막막한 내집'…서울 중간가격 주택구입에 월소득 41% 부담

•   산은: 3년 끈 대한항공-아시아나 합병 향배는…EU집행위에 쏠리는 눈

•   금융시장: 상반기 훈풍은 착시였나…거래 부진에 시름한 3분기 M&A 시장

•   금융사: 5대 은행 중 우리은행 생산성 꼴찌…1인당 이익 케뱅의 절반

•   금융사: [단독] "결제 다음달로 미뤄라" 권하는 전북은행…건전성 '빨간불' 고육책

•   기재위(서영교): [단독]10년간 세금 제때 안내 붙은 가산세 33조…고의 누락 2.4조

•   기재위(양경숙): '휴지 조각'된 물납 주식 148종목…세금 2천581억원 못 거둬

•   기재부: [단독] 정부, 내년 한은 ‘마이너스 통장’ 이자 상환 예산만 3500억 증액

•   거시경제: "고금리 악재에 게걸음 증시 … 반도체 수출 회복이 관건"

•   거시경제: 10월 물가의 역습 … 우유·LPG·지하철요금 안오르는게 없네

•   보훈부: 박민식, 중국의 인천상륙작전 기념식 비판에 "선 넘은 것"

•   산자위(김회재): 이자부담에 허리 휘는 가계…빚 있는 상용직 가구 月36만원 썼다

•   산업부: 무역수지 4개월 연속 흑자…반도체 회복세·對中 적자 개선 흐름

•   비금융사: 7년만에 돌아온 유커 특수

•   비금융사: 메모리는 ‘반등’, 파운드리는 ‘부진’… 반도체 시황 엇갈리는 이유는

•   환노위(이수진): [단독]SPC, 올해 상반기 산업재해 109건…사고가 100건

•   외통위(박홍근): [단독]통일부, '北실상' 관련 예산 대폭↑…통일정책·교육은 ↓

•   통일부: 김영호 "북 합의깨는 잘못된 행태 통하지 않아…악순환 안돼"

•   법사위(김영배): [단독] 감사원, 수사요청 보도자료 급증… “文정부 망신주기”

•   연금특위: 국회 연금개혁안 총선 뒤엔 나올까…특위 활동기한 연장키로

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Yi Fuxian): A Chinese Bubble Long in the Making

•   Project Syndicate(Gernot Wagner): The Green Growth Mindset

•   Project Syndicate(Nina L. Khrushcheva): Putin and Kim’s Cartoon Summit

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden and Trump Woo the UAW in Michigan

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Government Shutdown for Dummies

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): High Noon for the CFPB at the Supreme Court

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Democrats vs. ‘Bidenomics’

•   NYT(Peter Coy): There Is Only One Way to Fix the National Budget

•   NYT(Nicholas Kristof): Why Unions Are Good for America

•   NYT(Farhad Manjoo): The Flaw in the Case Against Amazon

•   WP(Editorial Board): A GOP minority threatens to shut down government — and governance

•   WP(Editorial Board): China’s Uyghur campaign continues

•   WP(Fareed Zakaria): A peace deal between the Saudis and Israelis could change everything

•   FT(Editorial Board): It is right to shed light on opaque private capital markets

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Global lessons from inflation’s rise above the UK target

•   FT(Andrei Lankov): Russia and North Korea are baring their teeth

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Jamie Dimon’s 7% Rates May Come Even Without the Fed's Help

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): Factory Jobs or More Outsourcing? India Has a Third Way

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): It’s Time to Scrap the Russian Oil Price Cap

•   Bloomberg(Brooke Sutherland): Industrial Strength: Robots Versus Workers Is No Zero-Sum Game

•   Bloomberg(F.D. Flam): Don’t Worry About Global Population Collapse

•   Bloomberg(Claudia Sahm): Food Inflation Is a Hardship Outside the Fed's Control