Global Economic Monitor 240918

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks fizzle, dollar rises with eyes on Fed and strong data

※   Wall Street reverses some early gains

※   Treasury yields rise, dollar stands firm

※   Fed meets on Wednesday, rate cut expected

※   U.S. retail sales, manufacturing production increase

[Indicators]

•   US Aug. Retail sales: US Retail Sales Post Surprise Gain, Helped by Online Stores

•   US Aug. Industrial production: US Industrial Production Rebounds After Hurricane-Related Drop

•   Germany Sep. ZEW economic sentiment: German Economic Expectations Darken Further

•   India Aug. WPI: India's August wholesale inflation cools to 1.31% as global oil prices fall

•   India Aug. Balance of trade: India’s Trade Gap Widens in August as Exports Slow

•   Indonesia Aug. Balance of trade: Indonesia's trade surplus beats forecast in August on export recovery

[World]

•   WSJ: Fed Prepares to Lower Rates, With Size of First Cut in Doubt

•   WSJ: Trump Floats Easing Cap on State and Local Tax Deductions

•   WSJ: Federal Debt Is Soaring. Here’s Why Trump and Harris Aren’t Talking About It.

•   WSJ: Hezbollah Pagers Explode in Apparent Attack Across Lebanon

•   WSJ: One Million Are Now Dead or Injured in the Russia-Ukraine War

•   WSJ: U.S. Officials Jet to Beijing Amid Flood of Cheap Chinese Exports

•   NYT: Will Lower Rates Unleash a Business Boom? It’s Complicated.

•   NYT: China’s ‘Silver Economy’ Is Thriving as Birthrate Plunges

•   FT: US and Japan near deal to curb chip technology exports to China

•   Bloomberg: Waller, Seen as Potential Fed Chair, Won’t Welcome Trump’s Input

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Braces for Hawkish Central Bank Chief Just as Fed Readies Rate Cuts

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Tightening Cycle Set to Miss Market Forecast, JPM Says

[Korea]

•   기재위(오기형): "10년간 세관 마약 적발량 11배 증가…밀수 대형화 추세"

•   기재위(차규근): "'영끌' 40대, 소득보다 부채가 2.5배나 더 많아"

•   통계청: '나 홀로 사장님' 12개월째 감소…5년여 만에 처음

•   거시경제: 코로나前 회복 못한 중소기업 생산…대기업 회복에도 2년째 감소

•   거시경제: 中企 '냉골 경기'에도 반도체 천수답…낙수효과 '회의론'

•   금감원: 둔촌주공 집단대출 뛰어든 상호금융…금감원 '풍선효과' 경고

•   부동산시장: 전셋값도 100억 넘겼다 서울 초고가 거래 '훌쩍'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg): What a Successful Industrial Policy Needs

•   Project Syndicate(Zhang Jun): China’s Commitment to Constant Adaptation and Structural Transformation

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): A U.S. National Debt Crisis Is Coming

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Trumpism, Stalinism and the Tariff Debate

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Draghi is trying to save Europe from itself

•   FT(Chris Giles): A crisis of confidence at the Fed

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Mortgage Rates Puzzle Is a Worry for Housing and the Fed

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Income Inequality Isn’t the Problem. Uneven Growth Is.

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Rate Cuts: Powell Has Reason to Call the Market's Bluff

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): OPEC+ Faces a New Problem: A Texas Gas Pipeline