Global Economic Monitor 230929

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stock index rises as oil, 10-year yield and dollar pull back

※   World shares advance after 9-session losing streak

※   10-year yield dips, oil settles lower

※   Dollar/yen still close to testing 150

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Rises as Outages Crimp Flows Ahead of Heating Season

•   Grains: Corn hits one-month high ahead of US data; soy falls on energy drop

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 GDP(final): US GDP growth unrevised at 2.1% in second quarter as economy shows resilience

•   US Aug. Pending home sales: US Pending Home Sales Index Slides to Lowest Level Since 2020

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Slightly fewer number of Americans apply for jobless benefits as layoffs remain rare

•   Eurozone Sep. Economic sentiment: Eurozone Sentiment Slides Again in September

•   Germany Sep. CPI: German inflation falls to two-year low

•   India Jun. Current account: India’s Current Account Deficit Widens Out-Pacing Estimates

[World]

•   WSJ: U.S., China Talks Gain Momentum, Paving Way for Xi-Biden Summit

•   WSJ: China Is Investing Billions in Global Disinformation Campaign, U.S. Says

•   WSJ: House Republicans Open Impeachment Inquiry Into Biden

•   WSJ: Border Security in Spotlight as Congress Seeks to Avert Shutdown

•   WSJ: Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee Warns of Risk of Causing Downturn

•   WSJ: More U.S. Home Sellers Are Dropping Asking Prices

•   WSJ: Evergrande’s Stalled Turnaround Plan Casts Doubt on Corporate Restructuring in China

•   WSJ: Taiwan Unveils Homemade Submarine as It Seeks to Counter China Threat

•   WSJ: Oil Is Near $100. Shale Isn’t Coming to the Rescue.

•   WSJ: Lina Khan Once Went Big Against Amazon. As FTC Chair, She Changed Tack.

•   WSJ: Tesla Is Accused of Racial Harassment at California Factory

•   WSJ: UAW Joins Wave of Union Strikes Looking for Big Wins

•   NYT: Appeals Court Rejects Trump’s Effort to Delay Trial in Fraud Case

•   FT: Is it good when Wall Street compares today to 2007?

•   FT: France looks at windfall levy to ‘take back control’ of energy prices

•   FT: Rising headwinds threaten US economy’s resilience

•   FT: Fed weighed removing SVB CEO from supervisor’s board before collapse

•   FT: Thousands of Apple customers complain latest iPhone models are overheating

•   FT: OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device venture

•   Bloomberg: Fed and ECB Urged by Economists to Embrace Interest-Rate Pause

•   Bloomberg: Powell Says Public’s Understanding Key to Fed Impact on Economy

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Barkin Says Too Early to Know If More Rate Hikes Needed

•   Bloomberg: Why Rate Hikes May Still Yet Bring Economic Pain

•   Bloomberg: German Economy to Shrink 0.6% in 2023 Before Wages Drive Rebound

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Nagel Says More Rate Hikes May Be on Way If Data Warrant

•   Bloomberg: China Names Lan Fo’an as Party Chief of Finance Ministry

•   Bloomberg: China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Draws Warnings at IEA Gathering

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Central Bank Sees Faster Growth This Year Before Downturn

•   Bloomberg: Lula, Brazil Central Bank Chief Agree to Improve Dialogue

•   Bloomberg: IMF Says Argentina’s Spending Adds Risks to $44 Billion Deal

•   Bloomberg: Falling Beer Sales Show Growing Risk for Vietnam’s GDP

•   Bloomberg: FTSE Holds Off Adding South Korea, India to Key Bond Indexes

•   Bloomberg: Souring Global Office Bets Raise Risk of Korean Liquidity Crunch

•   Bloomberg: ‘Mr. Yen’ Says Japan Will Fret If Rate Hits 155, May Intervene

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Falling US Crop Exports Mean America Losing Original Superpower

•   CNBC: China’s chip equipment firms see revenue surge as Beijing seeks semiconductor self-reliance

[Korea]

•   국회: 與 "대통령이 미는 후보" 野 "강서구서 정권 심판"

•   예정처: "내년 상반기까지 만기계약 60% 역전세·10% 깡통전세 위험"

•   정무위: 기업 도산 경고음 커지는데…워크아웃법 연장 사실상 무산

•   정무위(김성주): [빚의 굴레 빠진 청년②]"빚 청산만 기다립니다"[뉴시스 창사 22년]

•   정무위(김한규): [단독]'카르텔' 비판하더니…보수단체 해외연수 보내준 정부

•   정무위(송석준): 시중은행·산업銀 금리인하요구 실적 저조

•   금융위: 예금보호 한도 5천만원 유지로 가닥

•   금융시장: 상반기 증권사 PF 손실 최대 2.8조 예상…연체율 상승 ‘빨간불’

•   금융시장: CD금리 ETF로 몰리는 투자자들…삼성전자 거래대금보다 많아

•   금융시장: “이번 추석엔 고금리 특판 없어요”… 불황에 달라진 저축은행 풍속도

•   KIPF: "韓 기업부채 급증세…GDP대비 비율, 외환위기 수준 웃돌아"

•   기재위(진선미): '신용불량' 청년층 23만명…6개월 만에 1만7천명 늘었다

•   공정위: [단독] ‘불공정 약관’ 시정명령 안 따라도 국가기관들은 ‘나 몰라라’

•   권익위: [단독] 권익위, '김혜경 법카' 공익 제보자에 구조금 지급

•   산자위(권명호): [단독] 탈원전에 공사 밀린 신한울3·4호기 10.9조 손실

•   국토위(김수흥): [단독]활용 특허 줄어만 가는데…국토교통 R&D축소 괜찮나

•   국토위(김학용): [단독] 文정부서 부동산원 직원 58차례 이례적 '靑 출장'

•   국토부: 세입자 보증금 떼먹는 임대인, 이르면 연말 명단 공개된다

•   일본: 日오염수 내달 5일 2차 방류

•   행안위(이형석): [단독] 정부, 청년·장애인 예산 ‘국고보조 상향’ 의무 미이행···지자체 부담↑

•   행안부: [단독]尹정부 민방위 정상화 가속… 내년부터 국민 참여 민방위 훈련 연 3회서 4회로 확대

•   국방위: [단독] 신원식, 청문회에서 거짓말?‥이완용 옹호 발언했다

•   북한: 北 '핵 사용' 헌법에도 못박았다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Willem H. Buiter): Is the Fed’s Negative Capital a Problem?

•   Project Syndicate(Antara Haldar): Laying Chicago Economics to Rest

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Lina Khan Has a Weak Case Against Amazon

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): Europe Learns Its Electric Cars Will Be Made in China

•   WP(Greg Sargent): New data on ultra-rich tax cheats wrecks the ‘working-class GOP’ ruse

•   FT(Editorial Board): For business, breaking up with China is hard to do

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Europe should worry but not panic over China

•   FT(César Pérez Ruiz): From black to red zero in Germany? Don’t bank on it

•   FT(Paolo Gentiloni): Non-European companies need not fear the EU’s new carbon border tax

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): The Yuan’s Slide Doesn’t Have to End in Tears

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): A Glimmer of Hope in Dysfunctional US Housing Market

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Risks Are Growing of a Double-Dip ‘Vibecession’

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Market Low: Stocks, Bonds, the Usual Suspects and Nowhere to Hide

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Xi’s Bottom Line on Debt and the Troublesome Tycoons

•   Bloomberg(Chris Bryant): Where Are All the Private Equity Bankruptcies?