Business Intelligence Monitor 220201

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stocks trade higher at the end of a volatile month

※   Global stocks recover but are down 6% in January

※   Oil soars about 17% in Jan in biggest jump since Feb 2021

※   Dollar index on track for largest daily fall since Jan. 12

•   Oil: Oil Posts Its Strongest January in Decades as Market Tightens

※   OPEC+ alliance to meet Wednesday to assess the market

•   Natural gas: Gas prices climb for fifth straight week as oil surges

•   Metals: Copper prices tick up in trade thinned by China holiday

•   Grains: Wheat slides on U.S. weather, reduced fears over Ukraine

[Indicators]

•   OPEC Jan. Oil output: OPEC oil output rises by 210,000 bpd in January, survey shows

•   US Jan. Dallas Fed manufacturing Index: Fed Data Show Wages at Texas Factories Climb to Record High

•   Eurozone Q4 GDP: Eurozone regains pre-crisis GDP level despite winter slowdown

※   Strong quarterly growth in Spain, France and Italy offsets contractions in Germany and Austria

•   Germany·Spain Dec. CPI: German and Spanish inflation stays high to increase pressure on ECB

•   China Jan. Home sales: China Home Sales Slump Deepened in January in Blow to Economy

•   Japan Dec. Retail sales: Japan Dec retail sales rise 1.4% year/year - govt

•   Japan Dec. Industrial production: Japan Quarterly Output Gain Signals Growth Return Before Omicron

•   Japan Jan. Consumer confidence: Japan's consumer confidence falls in Jan., gov't lowers assessment

•   India Dec. Core industry production: Core sector output up 3.8% in December

•   India Jan. GST collections: GST collection up 15%, tops ₹1.38 lakh crore in January

[Trackers]

•   Johns Hopkins University: COVID-19 Global Cases & Deaths

•   Worldometer: COVID Live Update

•   Bloomberg: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

•   NYT: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker: Latest Updates

•   FT: Pandemic crisis: Global economic impact tracker

•   FT: Inflation tracker: the latest figures as countries grapple with rising prices

•   CNN: Tracking America's recovery

•   Bloomberg: Global PMI Tracker

•   Bloomberg: The Covid Resilience Ranking

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S., Russia Square Off Over Ukraine in U.N. Security Council Debate

※   Washington and allies say Russian goal is to destabilize Kyiv; Moscow accuses U.S. of ‘stoking tensions’ after failing to block debate

•   WSJ: NATO Leaders Stream to Ukraine, Showing Support as Russia Masses Troops

•   WSJ: U.S., U.K. Prepare Plans to Sanction Russian Oligarchs, Businesses

※   Washington is drafting a list of Kremlin allies that could be blacklisted if Russia invades Ukraine, and the U.K. is proposing a new sanctions law

•   WSJ: FDA Fully Approves Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine; U.S. Infections Fall

•   WSJ: How the Fed’s Policy Shift Is Rippling Through the Housing Market

•   WSJ: Fed Nominee Has Focused His Research on Monetary Policy and Poverty

•   WSJ: EPA Moves to Restore Obama-Era Rules on Power Plants

•   WSJ: U.S. Sanctions Myanmar Government Officials, Port Business on Coup Anniversary

※   Sanctions against a Myanmar port operator and several individuals with alleged ties to the government and military come about a year after a coup overturned a civilian-led government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi

•   WSJ: China’s Communist Party Quietly Inserts Itself Into Everyday Life

•   WSJ: Investors Sour on Muni Funds

•   WSJ: Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher

•   NYT: For Some of Ukraine’s Neighbors, ‘Defend Europe’ Has Another Meaning

•   NYT: Putin and Macron talk again by phone, keeping diplomatic lines open.

•   NYT: What a Disconnect From Swift Would Mean for Russia

•   NYT: Fed Officials Make It Clear: This Time Is Different

•   NYT: Novavax applies to the F.D.A. for authorization of its Covid vaccine.

•   NYT: We Need to Talk About Covid, Part 2: A Conversation with Dr. Fauci

•   NYT: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada tests positive for the coronavirus.

•   NYT: An Omicron surge across Asia restricts travel during the Lunar New Year weekend.

•   NYT: Stocks had a lousy start to the year, but Wall Street expects good times ahead.

•   FT: Omicron sub-variant BA.2 more infectious than original version, says study

•   FT: Germany’s Russia problem: Ukraine crisis tests new government

•   FT: Draghi staying on strengthens hand of EU fiscal reformists

•   FT: BoE predicted to raise rates for second time in quick succession

•   FT: Johnson fails to impress Tory MPs with ‘train wreck’ Commons performance

•   FT: Johnson rejects calls to resign after scathing report on lockdown parties

※   UK prime minister, who refused to acknowledge rules breaches, faces allegations that he misled MPs

•   FT: UK devolved governments attack Johnson’s post-Brexit plan

•   FT: Many young Britons left with insecure work by the pandemic

•   FT: Winners and losers emerge from lingering US supply chain crisis

•   FT: Investors are shunning China’s once-hot consumer tech start-ups

•   FT: Air taxis: flight of fantasy or truly set for lift off?

•   Bloomberg: Global Gas Demand Growth Hit by Europe’s Energy Crisis, IEA Says

※   IEA: Gas Market Report, Q1 2022

•   Bloomberg: OECD Sees Global Inflation Pressures Easing in Next 12-18 Months

•   Bloomberg: Global Power Crunch Hit at Least 350 Million People With Outages

•   Bloomberg: Then and Now: How This Fed Liftoff Is Nothing Like That of 2015

•   Bloomberg: Three, Four, Five, Six or Seven Fed Hikes? Wall Street Is Split

•   Bloomberg: Work-From-Home Spurs Blue-Collar Americans to Seek Career Shifts

•   Bloomberg: Newly Built Homes Make Up Record Share of U.S. Housing Supply

•   Bloomberg: Europe Is Losing Nuclear Power Just When It Really Needs Energy

※   Countries are plunging deeper into an energy crisis, but some governments are still shutting down reactors.

•   Bloomberg: Omicron Dashes China’s Hopes of Winter Olympics Boosting Economy

•   Bloomberg: Myanmar Extends State of Emergency as Coup Anniversary Nears

•   Bloomberg: All Roads Lead to Recession for Biggest Latin American Economies

•   Bloomberg: Lula Advised to Emulate Biden’s Infrastructure Plan If Elected

•   Bloomberg: Thailand Ready for Rush of Tourists With Quarantine-Free Visas

•   Bloomberg: Soros Says China’s Real Estate Crisis, Omicron Threaten Xi’s Rule

•   Bloomberg: Hedge-Fund Trade That Upended the Treasury Market Is Set to Return

•   Bloomberg: The 60/40 Portfolio Has Worst Loss Since March 2020 on Fed Shift

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Treasury Lifts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $729 Billion

•   Bloomberg: Dollar to Peak After Fed Kick-Off in March, JPMorgan’s Hui Says

•   Bloomberg: Russia Keeps Gas Traders Guessing With No Sign of New Supply

•   Bloomberg: BlackRock Warns of New Era of Supply-Driven Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Fewer China Flights May Worsen Chip Shortage With Port Snarled

•   Bloomberg: China’s Electric Car Price Hikes, Subsidy Cuts Pose Challenge to EV Sales

•   Reuters: Merck's COVID pill is last choice for U.S. patients, global use varies

•   Reuters: Global carbon markets value surged to record $851 bln last year-Refinitiv

•   Reuters: Goldman Sachs cuts 2022 GDP forecast to 3.2% vs 3.8% consensus

•   Reuters: Fed's Barkin says pace of U.S. rate hikes depends on inflation

•   Reuters: Fed sees March rate hike, but no roadmap after that

•   Reuters: Inflation stations: Five questions for the ECB

•   Reuters: Fossil fuel subsidies to face tighter EU scrutiny

•   Reuters: UAE blocks missile strike as Israeli president visits

•   Reuters: India sees GDP growth slowing to 8-8.5% in 2022/23 as risks rise

•   Reuters: China's most used COVID shots effective against Delta variant-study

•   Reuters: Myanmar's Suu Kyi to go on trial for election fraud Feb. 14 -source

•   Reuters: Factbox: Myanmar's post-coup crisis in numbers

•   Reuters: Analysis: Inflation fears, Biden antitrust efforts could doom Sanderson, Wayne chicken deal

•   Reuters: Analysis: With seven tests in a month, North Korea calls for world to accept its missiles

•   AP: Omicron amps up concerns about long COVID and its causes

•   CNBC: Biden is sending more than $1 billion to states to plug abandoned oil and gas wells

•   MarketWatch: CDC data confirm boosters offer high level of protection against severe COVID, bolster case for unvaccinated to get their shots

•   Fox Business: Laffer's dire warning on inflation, US economy: 'Tipping into a slowdown'

•   Fox Business: Fed expected to raise rates 7 times this year to fight inflation, BofA says

•   SCMP: Tech war: Beijing will come out of decoupling worse off than the US, say Chinese academics

•   SCMP: China’s backing for global debt transparency crucial to contain Covid-induced stress in emerging markets

•   SCMP: China urged don’t dismiss ‘negative impact’ of US interest rate cut out of hand

•   SCMP: China-Russia ties: as the West forces them together, Xi and Putin show up for each other

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan auto giants accelerate electric minicar rollout

•   Nikkei Asia: China's smartphone market grows for 1st time in 5 years

•   Nikkei Asia: Myanmar struggles with disconnect 1 year after takeover

•   Economic Times: Economic Survey's GDP forecast of 8-8.5 per cent optimistic, say experts

•   Economic Times: Imported inflation reappears as a concern

•   Economic Times: India resilient to worldwide monetary policy normalisation

•   Economic Times: Manufacturing outlook in Q3 up, but hiring seen subdued

•   For Construction Pros: $12B in Funding On Hold for Infrastructure

•   Robotics Tomorrow: The Next Generation of Robots

•   매경(P1): 오미크론 80% 넘어 지배종으로…연휴에도 1만7천명대 확진

•   매경(P1): LG엔솔 車배터리 핵심원료 獨 업체서 110만대분 확보

•   매경(P1): 北, 괌 사정권 미사일 실전배치 으름장

•   조선비즈: “북한, 더 큰 도발 가능성… ICBM시험 시간문제” 美언론 분석

•   조선비즈: [스마트카 시대]② 플랫폼으로 진화하는 車… 빅테크 기업도 눈독

•   조선비즈: [세계의 포용금융]① 집에 돈 쌓아두던 미국… 공공펀드가 은행 대신한다

•   조선비즈: [기업 죄는 족쇄]② 국민 노후자금으로 기업에 소송하는 국민연금

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 1만3천592명 확진…어제보다 1천550명↓

•   e대한경제: 새해 서울 '최악'의 거래 절벽

•   에너지경제: "2022년 전기 수요, 산업용 증가·가정용은 감소"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Raghuram G. Rajan): The End of Free-Lunch Economics

•   Project Syndicate(Simon Johnson): The Fed's Climate Awakening

•   Project Syndicate(James K. Galbraith): The Fed's Target Is Workers

•   FT(Editorial Board): Italy displays its dysfunction with presidency race

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): The international cult of Vladimir Putin

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): About that big Fed pivot . . .

•   FT(Chetan Ahya): Asian economic growth to outstrip Americas and Europe

•   FT(Jonathan Guthrie): Shutting out Russia from Swift system would not be a surgical strike

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): Covid losers outnumber the winners among leaders and nations

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Handling a Hybrid War in Ukraine

•   NYT(John M. Barry): What We Can Learn From How the 1918 Pandemic Ended

•   NYT(Eleni Courea): The Next Few Days Are Critical for Boris Johnson

•   WP(Paul Waldman): Trump’s 2024 campaign is about revenge. We should be very frightened.

•   WP(Zau Maran): In Myanmar, we’re looking back on a year of trauma since the coup

•   WP(Melissa Chan): China is regularly called ‘authoritarian.’ That doesn’t feel like enough.

•   WP(Ulrike Franke): Germany isn’t turning its back on NATO. It only looks that way.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Joe Biden Can't Ignore North Korea's Missiles Much Longer

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): How to Prevent the Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): The Russia-Sized Mystery in China’s Power Sector That Will Hurt Climate Goals

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Powell's Indecision Leaves Markets Confused, While Tightening Hasn't Yet Begun

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): BOE Has More Than Rate Hikes to Worry About

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): Bloated Inventories Are Poised to Slow the U.S. Economy

•   Fox News(Andy Puzder): Does Biden deserve credit for economic recovery? Here's a realistic look at the numbers

•   Fox News(Angelica Stabile): Russia-Ukraine conflict: How the showdown between neighbors came to be

•   Fox News(K.T. McFarland): Ukraine-Russia standoff a global crisis – the world could look very different a year from now

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Oil investors realise some profits as market looks stretched