Business Intelligence Monitor 211013

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stagflation woes hit U.S. stocks; 2-yr Treasury yield jumps

※   Two-year Treasury yields, which have climbed as much as 100 basis points in October along, jumped to 0.3419%, a level last seen in March 2020.

•   US: Chip Stocks Slump on Supply Chain Concerns, Test Support Level

•   Coal: Physical Coal Prices in China Surge on Nationwide Shortage

•   Metals: Copper falls as global energy crisis spooks markets

•   Iron ore: Iron ore price retreats on steel output curbs

•   Grains: Soybeans drop to Dec 2020 lows on bigger-than-expected production

•   한국: 비틀거리는 증시…환율 1200원 찍었다

•   한국: 삼성전자, 10개월 만에 다시 '6만전자' 됐다

•   한국: 두산그룹주 약세, 오리콤 3%대 두산퓨얼셀 두산중공업 1% 안팎 내려

[Indicators]

•   US Aug. Job openings: Job Openings in U.S. Decreased in August for First Time This Year

•   US Sep. NFIB Business optimism index: Small businesses frustrated by labor shortages afflicting the economy, NFIB finds

•   Germany Oct. ZEW economic sentiment: Bottlenecks drag German sentiment down for fifth month running - ZEW

•   UK Aug. Employment: UK job vacancies hit record 1.1m as labour market tightens

•   China Sep. Car sales: Chip shortage and power crunch hit China auto sales in 'Golden September'

•   China Sep. Home sales: China Home Sales Are Falling Sharply

•   Japan Sep. PPI: Japan wholesale inflation hits 13-year high, squeezing profits

•   India Aug. Industrial production: Factory output surges 11.9 per cent in August

•   India Sep. CPI: Inflation hits an eight-month low, eases to 4.35% in September

•   UAE 2020 GDP: Dubai’s economy shows promising growth after slumping 11% last year

•   한국 기준금리: 한은, 기준금리 동결…물가상승 등에 다음달 인상할 듯

※   한국은행: 통화정책방향(2021.10.12)

※   매경: 빚투 영끌족 날벼락…한은 "11월 금리 추가 인상 고려"

•   한국 8월 재정수지: 국세 56조 더 걷어도 나라살림 70조 적자

•   한국 9월 고용행정통계: 식당·숙박업 일자리 17개월째 감소

•   한국 10월 1~10일 수출: 10월 1∼10일 수출 63.5% 증가…일평균 기준 33.8%↑

[Trackers]

•   Johns Hopkins University: COVID-19 Global Cases & Deaths

•   Worldometer: COVID Live Update

•   Bloomberg: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

•   NYT: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker: Latest Updates

•   FT: Pandemic crisis: Global economic impact tracker

•   CNN: Tracking America's recovery

•   Bloomberg: Global PMI Tracker

•   Bloomberg: The Covid Resilience Ranking

[News]

•   WSJ: IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures

※   Group also raises its inflation outlook, urging policy makers to stand ready to take swift action

※   IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2021

•   WSJ: IMF Chief to Stay Following Probe Into Data Rigging

•   WSJ: FDA Staff Don’t Take Position on Moderna Covid-19 Booster

※   Staff didn’t take a stance after reviewing drugmaker’s application for booster authorization; move appears driven by insufficient data

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Vaccine-Mandate Fight Between Texas and Biden Has Companies Caught in the Middle

•   WSJ: CureVac Shelves Covid-19 Vaccine, Focuses on Next-Generation Shot

※   Vaccine developers shift focus to variants, boosters as initial market looks to close to new entrants

•   WSJ: Democrats Debate Eligibility for Reconciliation Bill’s New Social Programs

•   WSJ: House Set to Temporarily Raise Debt Limit

※   Democrats grapple with how to set a new ceiling for U.S. debt later this year over Republican resistance

•   WSJ: Fed’s Clarida Affirms Fed Plans to End Bond Purchases by Mid-2022

※   Central bank’s No. 2 official said he expects recent ‘unwelcome surge’ in inflation to prove ‘largely transitory’

•   WSJ: Fed’s Bostic: Inflation Surge Will Likely Last Longer Than Expected

•   WSJ: Chinese Developer Fantasia Loses Two Board Members

•   WSJ: China to Let Power Prices Rise in Bid to Fix Electricity Crunch

※   Shortage has slowed factory output, hitting companies around the world

•   WSJ: COP26 Host Britain Ramps Up Calls for Climate Plans

•   WSJ: Shale Drillers May Boost Spending, but Don’t Expect an Oil Bonanza

•   WSJ: Southwest Pilots Warn Fatigue, Frustration Could Fuel Further Outages

•   WSJ: GM to Recover $1.9 Billion in Bolt-Recall Costs in Deal With LG

•   WSJ: The China-U.S. 5G Battle Upends a Telecom Industry Consortium

•   WSJ: Is 5G Good or Bad for the Environment?

•   WSJ: Apple to Host New Event Next Week, New MacBooks Expected

•   WSJ: Chip Shortage Not Great for Chip Makers Either

•   WSJ: Return of Office Workers Reaches Pandemic High as Employees Trickle In

•   NYT: Countries around the globe turn to vaccine mandates to fight coronavirus.

•   NYT: Past Pandemics Remind Us Covid Will Be an Era, Not a Crisis That Fades

•   NYT: What the Future May Hold for the Coronavirus and Us

•   NYT: Should We Be Vaccinated or Tested to Fly Within the U.S.?

•   NYT: If You’ve Had Covid, Do You Need the Vaccine?

•   NYT: Covid’s disproportionate effect on older people is even larger than many people realize.

•   NYT: W.H.O. Will Announce New Team to Study Coronavirus Origins

•   NYT: Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Continue to Rise

※   FRBNY: Risk of high inflation dogs central bankers as consumer expectations climb.

•   NYT: As earnings season begins, inflation and supply chain issues cloud the outlook.

•   NYT: As Big Tech Grows in the Pandemic, Seattle Grows With It

•   FT: UK warns EU against ‘historic misjudgement’ on Brexit

※   London demands overhaul of Northern Ireland trading deal as Brussels prepares concessions

•   FT: Merck aims to double supply of Covid-19 antiviral pill on rising demand

•   FT: G20 plan for Covid debt relief to poor countries falls short

•   FT: Emmanuel Macron unveils €30bn plan to boost French industries

•   FT: France bets on more nuclear power in face of Europe energy crisis

※   President Emmanuel Macron has said France will invest €1bn in nuclear power by the end of this decade

•   FT: Energy crisis reignites EU divisions over nuclear power

•   FT: EU launches largest-ever green bond

•   FT: Sunak faces difficult public finances at Budget, IFS warns

•   FT: Sunak to apply tough ‘value for money’ tests on gas bailouts

•   FT: UK’s early herd immunity strategy was ‘public health failure’, Covid report finds

•   FT: Hedge funds snap up uranium in bet on green energy shift

•   FT: Rise of the ‘carbon neutral’ hydrocarbons

•   FT: SpaceX: how Elon Musk’s new rocket could transform the space race

•   FT: Maersk diverts big cargo ships from UK as Felixstowe fills up

•   FT: US bank chiefs confident supply chain disruptions are ‘transitory’

•   Bloomberg: Apple Set to Cut iPhone Production Goals Due to Chip Crunch

※   Company expects to make 10 million fewer iPhones than planned

•   Bloomberg: Apple’s Balancing Act in China Gets Trickier During Xi’s Crackdown

•   Bloomberg: Global Port Trackers Show Where the Worst Ship Logjams Lurk

•   Bloomberg: What's Happening in the World Economy: The Squid Game Economy

•   Bloomberg: Covid-19 Vaccine Effects on Death Rates Differ by Country, Why?

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Coal Use Rebounds Under Biden as Energy Crisis Drives Fossil Fuel Demand

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Revises EU Steel Proposal as Tariff-Hike Deadline Looms

•   Bloomberg: Global Tax Deal Faces Threat in Senate Treaty Challenge

•   Bloomberg: Roubini Says Fed May ‘Wimp Out’ on Hikes Despite Inflation

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Risks Twin Policy Mistakes as BOE, Treasury Exit Stimulus

•   Bloomberg: ECB May Need PEPP Flexibility for Future Stimulus, Villeroy Says

•   Bloomberg: Scholz’s Bid to Run Germany Hits Key Phase as Discord Persists

•   Bloomberg: China Holds Back Fiscal Spending When Economy Needs It Most

•   Bloomberg: Worst Ship Traffic Jam Since August Outside Top Chinese Port

•   Bloomberg: Chinese Developer Sinic Warns of Default as Hidden Risks Mount

•   Bloomberg: G-20 Seeks to Help Afghans, But Some Leaders Skipped Summit

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Kishida Vows Progress Where Abenomics Fell Short: On Pay

•   Bloomberg: Global Inflation Worries Have Spread to Deflation-Prone Japan

•   Bloomberg: Stagflation Is All Anyone in Markets Wants to Talk About Now

•   Bloomberg: China Not ‘Dumb’ Enough for Lehman Moment, StanChart CEO Says

•   Bloomberg: Bumper Crops, Bulging Reserves Point to U.S. Food Inflation Relief

•   Bloomberg: European Gas Reverses Drop With Traders Awaiting Russian Exports

•   Bloomberg: Russia, UAE, Turkey Could Be Net-Zero in Decades

•   Bloomberg: China’s New Renewable Project Rivals All Wind and Solar in India

•   Bloomberg: China Rethinks Path to Climate Goals Due to Energy Crisis

•   Reuters: IMF says economic policymakers need to juggle continued support, risks

•   Reuters: China has ability to address Evergrande situation, still risks remain -IMF

※   IMF: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2021

•   Reuters: WHO says it awaits full data from Merck on antiviral pill

•   Reuters: Moderna's search for African site set to intensify - chairman

•   Reuters: European gas price surge prompts switch to coal

•   Reuters: Oil price rebound widens Middle East economic fault lines -IIF

•   Reuters: Japan confronts rising inequality after Abenomics

•   Reuters: Russia to test COVID-19 vaccine in form of nasal spray

•   Reuters: Asian Development Bank boosts 2019-2030 climate financing goal to $100 billion

•   Reuters: Russia says Gazprom has begun using gas stockpiles to stabilise market

•   CNN: Goldman Sachs: Home prices to climb another 16% by the end of 2022

•   CNN: The global supply chain nightmare is about to get worse

•   CNN: Waymo struggles with left turns and puddles. But it's still winning over Arizona riders.

•   CNN: $80 oil is here. Is $100 next?

•   CNBC: Sharp surge in energy prices threatens economic recovery and is already slowing growth

•   CNBC: Europe’s green transition has been ‘management by chaos,’ energy expert says

•   MarketWatch: Bitcoin could hit $70,000 in December, based on this valuation model, some analysts say

•   MarketWatch: BofA warns ‘guidance could be ugly’ as companies report on ‘make-or-break quarter’

•   SCMP: China ‘overly optimistic’ on relations with US, Beijing adviser says

•   SCMP: China power crisis: Premier Li warns provinces not to ‘jump the gun’ by cutting electricity to homes

•   Mainichi: Toyota aiming to bring high-efficiency solar tech to vehicle lineup

•   reNews: Green hydrogen critical for more efficient UK wind expansion'

•   reNews: ‘Sustainable energy sourcing key to meeting climate goals’

•   Construction Equipment: Construction Material Shortage Delays Bridge Replacement Project

•   DIGITIMES: Net-zero carbon emission goal constrained by rare earth bottleneck

•   DIGITIMES: Notebook ODMs see growth momentum soften for 2H21 shipments

•   DIGITIMES: Nan Ya PCB posts record 3Q21 revenue

•   매경(P1): [단독] 삼성전자, TSMC에 선전포고…"평택2공장 증설해 2024년 풀가동"

•   매경: 삼성 '메모리 초격차' 강화…현존최고 14나노 D램 양산

•   매경: 4년전 1억6000만원...세입자 사는집 지금 사려면 4억4000만원

•   매경: 해외여행 물꼬트나 싶더니…환율급등에 항공사들 '화들짝'

•   매경: "이재명 신경쓰이겠네"…노벨상 수상자 "기본소득 근로의욕 꺾는다"

•   매경: [단독] "공급망 충격대비…연내 한국형 해운 운임통계 내놓는다"

•   매경: 빚투 동학개미 직격탄…은행, 주식대출도 조인다

•   매경: 너도나도 "내 카드로 낼게"…10만원 캐시백 노려

•   매경: 원화값 하락 속도 빨라지자 달러예금 한달새 30억弗 쑥

•   매경: 디지털세 도입해도…구글·애플 1000억 안될듯

•   매경: 21세기에도…한국 경제의 힘은 공장에서 나온다 [Big Picture]

•   매경: 文정부 재산세 5년간 3조8000억원 늘었다

•   한경: "美기업 이익증가율 정점 지나…4분기 증시 큰 상승은 어렵다"

•   한경: 실물경제 탄탄한데 환율 치솟는 3가지 이유

•   한경: 증시 떠받쳐줄 매수주체가 안 보인다

•   한경: [단독]데이비드 카드 "AI 등 첨단 기술 발전한다고 해도 저숙련 근로자 임금 하락하지 않아"

•   한경: "기본소득 주려면 복지예산 줄여야…빈곤층 살림만 더 악화시킬 것"

•   한경: 김종인 만난 김동연 "이달 안에 신당 창당"

•   한경: 정승일 "신재생 발전 늘리면 전기요금 인상 요인 있을 수도"

•   한경: 中企 "정부 온실가스 감축목표 과도"

•   한경: "현금 부자만 집 사라는 거냐"…새 아파트 입주 포기하는 서민들

•   한경: 현대重그룹 '3세' 정기선 체제 가속…'두산 출신' 손동연, 파격 승진

•   한경: 中企 92% "외국인 입국 늦어져 일손 부족"

•   한경: 하락장서 '반등' 전망…"최악 시기 지나갔다" 무슨 종목이길래

•   한경: 공매도 해제 5개월 만에 주가 초토화…개미들 '부글부글'

•   한경: 널뛰는 채권시장…단기채 투자 관심

•   서경(P1): 서울 새 아파트, 내후년까지 씨 마른다

•   서경: 안전진단까지 강화해 재건축 퇴짜···2030년 후 물량도 장담못해

•   서경: [뷰&인사이트]누구를 위한 NDC 상향인가···제조 경쟁력은 무너진다

•   서경: '소부장' 눈독 들이는 中...韓 직접투자 3년연속 플러스

•   서경: 급등한 집값에···작년 7만명이 퇴직연금 깼다

•   서경: 집값 상승률 ‘1~10위 지역’ 지방·경기 외곽이 채웠다

•   서경: 두산건설 ‘반월역 두산위브 더센트럴’ 10월 분양

•   서경: "이달 시행 맞나요" 혼란 커지는 '반값 복비'

•   조선(P1): 입법조사처 “상속세 최고세율 50%, OECD 2위”

•   조선: 닥터붐 홍춘욱 “증시 큰 폭 하락 안해, 한국기업 이익 우상향”

•   조선: 삼전·하이닉스 산 개미들 울었다… 올들어 6조8000억원 손실 추정

•   조선비즈: 韓, 베트남·태국에 AZ백신 157만회분 보낸다… 첫 해외공여

•   조선비즈: “미국서 먹는 약 나온다”… 코로나 치료제 개발 중단하는 국내 제약사

•   조선비즈: 中 탄소감축에 마그네슘價 3배 ‘폭등’...국내 車·가전업계 ‘발등의 불’

•   조선비즈: 정비사업 속도 붙을까… 조합장 해임 기준 강화 추진

•   조선비즈: 신작폰 흥행에 5G 가입자 2000만 ‘초읽기’… 품질 논란은 ‘과제’

•   조선비즈: [혼돈의 중대재해법]②중소건설사는 한방에 ‘영구퇴출’ 당할 수도...車 브레이크 사고도 현대차 CEO가 처벌

•   조선비즈: “신기술·신소재 확보하라” …벤처 투자 늘리는 굴뚝기업들

•   조선비즈: [알립니다] 코로노믹스(Corona+Economics) 시대, 위기가 기회다… ‘글로벌경제·투자포럼’ 개최

•   중앙: [현장에서] 2년 전 비판받던 타다의 빈 자리, 카카오모빌리티가 채웠다

•   동아: 기업들 ‘백신 미접종 페널티’ 움직임… “자가격리때 무급 처리”

•   동아: 車업계 3개 단체 “온실가스 감축 속도조절 필요”

•   동아: [DBR/Special Report]메타버스 성공, 실감나는 ‘세계관’에 달렸다

•   문화: ‘신한울 원전 3·4호기 건설 재개’ 서명 전국서 100만명 넘었다

•   한국(P1): [단독] 가을야구 '직관' 허용 신중 검토... 수도권 8인 모임 내주 풀린다

•   한국: 살얼음판이지만… "지금처럼 확진자 쏟아져도 위드 코로나 해야"

•   서울: ‘수소 경제’ 기술 선택 갈림길 선 산업계…‘암모니아파 vs 액화수소파’ 누가 웃나

•   세계(P1): 좁은 취업문·자신감 부족… 청년 10명 중 7명 사실상 구직 포기

•   한겨레: 재생에너지 전기, 생산자-소비자 ‘직거래’ 가능해진다

•   한겨레: “최소화” 자평 해외 탄소감축량, 기존 안보다 2.2배 늘렸다

•   경향: “전기료 인상, 탈원전 정책과 무관”

•   머니투데이(P1): LG전자, 분기 사상 최대 매출 …'3분기 연속' 美 월풀 따돌려

•   머니투데이: 세금 수천만원 달렸는데...1주택 양도세 '12억 비과세' 언제되나

•   더벨: 지주사 재전환 ㈜두산, 증손회사 지분율은 어떻게

•   헤럴드경제(P1): “플랫폼 규제, 기업 맞춤형 접근해야”

•   헤럴드경제: [M&A 흔드는 거버넌스①] 거래 불이행·법정다툼...지배구조 개선 리스크에 딜 ‘타격’

•   헤럴드경제: [M&A 흔드는 거버넌스②] “밸류업 제1원칙은 거버넌스 개선”

•   헤럴드경제: [M&A 흔드는 거버넌스③] 한진칼·DL그룹 지배구조 개선에 기업가치 ‘쑥’

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 삼성 이어 현대차 동참..해외출장 문턱 낮춘다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 메모리 슈퍼사이클 고점론 확산.."내년 하반기나 돼야 반등 전망"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 빌라 경매도 '불장'… 수도권 낙찰가율 사상 최고

•   파이낸셜뉴스: '이산화탄소 포집' 파고든 한전… 기술 상용화 주도한다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "거리두기 또 연장땐 총궐기" 자영업계 최후통첩

•   디지털타임스: 확진자 한명이 0.8명에 전파… 유행확산 다소 꺾였다

•   디지털타임스: [비상하는 K-전자] "이미지센서, SK하이닉스 성장 한 축될 것"

•   이데일리: 우후죽순 신재생발전에 제주 풍력 `셧다운`…원전 10기 전력 허비

•   이데일리: “삼성이냐 애플이냐”…스마트워치도 ‘가을 대전’

•   연합: 오늘 1천600명대 예상…연휴 뒤 확진자 다시 증가하나

•   아주경제: [단독] 청와대의 수소경제 자화자찬…생산도 운송도 실상은 빈 수레

•   더구루: UAE 바라카 원전 3호 내년 가동 초읽기…'핵 라이선스' 승인

•   더구루: 美, 원전 활용 수소생산 지원...두산중공업 수혜

•   비즈니스포스트: 한수원 체코 원전사업 싹쓸이 할 기회, 정재훈 더 치열해질 경쟁에 각오

•   에너지경제: [전력대란 재깍재깍] 전력대란 경고음(下)…"수요 몰리는 곳 샛길 대신 큰 길부터 뚫어라"

•   에너지경제: "전력수급기본계획 상 주요송변전망, 70% 이상 준공 못해"

•   에너지데일리: “2030년 NDC, 국외감축 줄이고, 국내 감축량 확대해야 한다”

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성, EUV 공정 필수품 '펠리클' 직접 개발

•   전자신문: LPG차 등록대수 급감…수소경제 기반 '충전소'가 사라진다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(William R. Rhodes, Stuart P.M. Mackintosh): China's Self-Destructive Tech Takedown

•   Project Syndicate(Jayati Ghosh): The Real Rot at the IMF

•   Project Syndicate(Manish Bapna, Frannie Leautier, Rémy Rioux): Public Development Banks Can Drive Sustainable Finance

•   FT(Editorial Board): Vaccinating poorer countries is vital to the recovery

•   FT(Editorial Board): The acute dangers of a conflict over Taiwan

•   FT(Editorial Board): Lessons for all from the UK’s Covid mishandling

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Hopes and fears for the global Covid-19 recovery

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): Sinema and Manchin are wrong, but America needs them

•   FT(Constanze Stelzenmüller): The world won’t wait for Germany’s coalition negotiators

•   FT(Tim Harford): The Nobel Prize economists turned statistics into insight

•   FT(Kathrin Hille): China’s bellicose behaviour is the driver of tensions in Asian waters

•   FT(Lex): China electric cars/lithium: gold miner finds a new vein

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Oil Prices and Bad Policy

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Go Nukes

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Wait, We Still Want Fossil Fuels?

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): Will America Come to Taiwan’s Defense?

•   WSJ(David R. Henderson): ‘Natural Experiments’ Lead to an Economics Nobel

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Republicans, the Anti-Business Party

•   WP(Ben Ritz): A Build Back Better bill all Democrats can get behind

•   WP(Tom Frieden): Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines are our best chance to end this pandemic. Break up their duopoly.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Needs to Be Bolder

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gongloff): All the Supply Chain Nightmares Came Today

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Inflation Clarity Doesn’t Mean the News Is Good

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Hawkish Turn by BOE May End Up With Self-Harm for the U.K. Recovery

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): China's Pain Threshold for Evergrande Is the Moment Deleveraging Is at Risk

•   Bloomberg(Tara Lachapelle, Brooke Sutherland): Is the Covid Recovery Being Derailed? This Earnings Season May Tell

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Supply-Chain Woes Add to Biden's Burdens

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Poland's Intransigence Raises the Question of the European Union's True Identity

•   MarketWatch(Mark Hulbert): Beating the market would still be tough even if you knew the S&P 500's earnings before everyone else

•   Fox News(Stephen Moore): Biden thinks climate change is a bigger threat than China. He'll be sorry

•   Reuters(Clyde Russell): Asia crude oil imports stay soft, but Middle East is regaining share

•   Reuters(Jamie Mcgeever): Hedge funds' dollar policy: longer for longer