Business Intelligence Monitor 210930

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares stanch bleeding after selloff

•   Natural gas: European Energy Prices Continue Run of Record Highs

•   Natural gas: Natural gas drops 7%, sharpest decline since January following big run-up on supply concerns

•   Metals: Copper falls as power shortages grip top consumer China

•   Iron ore: Iron ore price up despite falling steel demand

•   Grains: Corn, soybeans, wheat move higher ahead of USDA stocks data

•   한국: 미국 증시 급락…코스피 이틀 연속 1%대 하락 마감

•   한국: 500만 삼전주주 어떡하나…TSMC 마이크론까지 우수수 떨어진다

•   한국: 두산그룹주 대체로 내려, 두산 3%대 두산중공업 2%대 떨어져

•   한국: 헝다 급한불 끄자 원화값 일단 반등

[Indicators]

•   US Aug. Pending home sales: Pending Home Sales in U.S. Rebound to a Seven-Month High in August

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage demand falls as rates rise to highest level since July

•   Eurozone Sep. Economic sentiment: Euro-Area Economic Confidence Bolstered by Consumers

•   Eurozone Sep. Economic activity: Eurozone consumer activity returns to pre-pandemic levels

※   Data show rising confidence but high energy prices and supply-chain disruptions pose threat

•   UK Aug. Mortgage approvals: U.K. Mortgage Approvals Ease as Housing-Market Frenzy Cools

•   Thailand Benchmark rate: Thailand Holds Rate on Rebound Optimism as Restrictions Ease

•   한국 7월 인구동향: 출생아수 또 사상 최저… 나홀로 노인 166만 가구

•   한국 9월 BSI·ESI: 코로나·유가 등에 기업 체감경기 나빠졌다

•   한국 4분기 수출산업경기전망조사: 4분기 수출도 호조 전망… 원재료값·물류비 상승은 걸림돌

•   한국 4분기 중견기업 경기전망조사: 중견기업 4분기 경기전망 하락… 車·전자 ‘맑음’ 건설 ‘흐림’

[Trackers]

•   Johns Hopkins University: COVID-19 Global Cases & Deaths

•   Worldometer: COVID Live Update

•   Bloomberg: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

•   NYT: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker: Latest Updates

•   FT: Pandemic crisis: Global economic impact tracker

•   CNN: Tracking America's recovery

•   Bloomberg: Global PMI Tracker

•   Bloomberg: The Covid Resilience Ranking

[News]

•   WSJ: Democrats Aim to Keep Government Funded as Talks Continue on $3.5 Trillion Bill

※   Party leaders try to bridge gaps between moderates and progressives threatening Biden’s agenda

•   WSJ: Democrats Pursue Europe’s Welfare State on American-Style Taxes

•   WSJ: Democrats’ Bid to Include Immigration Change in Budget Package Again Rejected

•   WSJ: House Republicans Confront Dilemma on Infrastructure Vote

•   WSJ: Industry Lobbyists Aim to Pick Apart Democrats’ $3.5 Trillion Spending Bill

•   WSJ: Powell Says Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Could Lead to Somewhat Longer Interval of High Inflation

※   Central-bank chairman says he expects prices to come down on their own

•   WSJ: Two Fed Officials Signal Support for Starting Bond Buying Taper

•   WSJ: Evergrande to Raise $1.5 Billion by Selling Bank Stake to State-Owned Firm

※   Developer will pare holding in Shengjing Bank to less than 15%

•   WSJ: Americans Are Getting Covid-19 Boosters—No Questions Asked

•   WSJ: U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn

※   Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum

•   WSJ: U.S., Europe Team Up to Address Chip Shortage, Tech Issues

※   White House: FACT SHEET: U.S.-EU Establish Common Principles to Update the Rules for the 21st Century Economy at Inaugural Trade and Technology Council Meeting

•   WSJ: Fumio Kishida to Become Japan’s Next Prime Minister After Party Election Win

※   WSJ: Former foreign minister defeated Taro Kono in runoff vote to win leadership of ruling Liberal Democratic Party

•   WSJ: India Aims to Produce mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine This Year

•   WSJ: There Is Still No Alternative for Investors

•   WSJ: Bond-Yield Surge Challenges Investor Confidence in Big Tech Companies

•   WSJ: Port Logjams Reach Savannah as Container Ships Idle off Georgia Coast

•   WSJ: What Science Knows Now About the Risk of Covid-19 Transmission on Planes

•   NYT: Biden Presses Democrats to Embrace His Economic Agenda

•   NYT: The C.D.C. escalates its pleas for any pregnant or breastfeeding Americans to get vaccinated against Covid.

•   NYT: What a U.S. Debt Default Would Look Like

•   NYT: U.K. Gas Shortages Reveal New Crucial Workers: Truck Drivers

•   NYT: Who Is Fumio Kishida, Japan's Likely Next Prime Minister?

•   NYT: Japan Faces Big Problems. Its Next Leader Offers Few Bold Solutions.

•   NYT: Do Germany’s Election Results Signal a Left Turn for Europe?

•   WP: White House moves to shield pandemic response if the government shuts down

•   WP: Democrats face a defining test of their governing power in the Biden era

•   WP: Berlin voters asked the city to tackle rising rents. The plan is a long shot, but the message is powerful.

•   FT: Global supply chains at risk of collapse, warn business leaders

•   FT: The vital issue missing from the trade agenda

•   FT: French greens take moderate path in pitch for presidency

•   FT: UK deploys reserve tanker fleet to help ease fuel crisis

•   FT: UK green energy surcharges set to switch from electric to gas bills

•   FT: Ofgem warns energy suppliers of strong enforcement action as crisis deepens

•   FT: Boris Johnson under pressure to set out UK’s route to net zero emissions

•   FT: UK plans to force sale of Chinese-owned nuclear stake to investors

•   FT: Global bond market set for worst month since early 2021

•   FT: US-China business: the necessary reinvention of Huawei

•   Bloomberg: China Weighs Raising Industrial Power Prices to Ease Supply Woes

•   Bloomberg: An Obscure Chinese Mining Law Is Hobbling Global Energy Security

•   Bloomberg: China Slashes Silicon Output, Signaling Higher Solar Panel Costs

•   Bloomberg: China Keeps Cash Engine Running in Ninth Day of Injections

•   Bloomberg: China Hidden Local Government Debt Is Half of GDP, Goldman Says

•   Bloomberg: Bondholders Await Payment, Marathon Buying: Evergrande Update

※   Fitch Ratings cuts Evergrande to one notch above default level

•   Bloomberg: Whatever Happens to Evergrande, Nobody Wants to Short the Yuan

•   Bloomberg: Covid-19 Cases Improving in 47 of 50 States

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Daly Says Trading Controversy Shows Need for Rule Changes

•   Bloomberg: Rents in US Are Accelerating at ‘Shocking’ Rates of More Than 10%

•   Bloomberg: EU, U.S. Divided on Steel-Duties Solution as Deadline Nears

•   Bloomberg: Draghi’s Full-Throttle Italy Budget Shows No Return to EU Limits

•   Bloomberg: Makhlouf Says ECB Must Be Ready to Act If Inflation Entrenched

•   Bloomberg: Rishi Sunak Set to Unveil Grants to Help UK Households With Cost of Living

•   Bloomberg: France to Consult With EU on Retaliation Over U.K. Fishing Spat

•   Bloomberg: Kuroda Rejects China Bubble Risk, Says It’s Not Like 1980s Japan

•   Bloomberg: Timber Crunch Shifts to Australia in Threat to Construction Boom

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro Complains About Gas Cost as Inflation Hurts Government

•   Bloomberg: Vietnam 2021 GDP Outlook at Risk as Virus Curbs Crimp Output

•   Bloomberg: Bond Traders Are Skeptical of Bostic’s Steeper Yield-Curve Call

•   Bloomberg: Risk of ‘Truly Unpredictable’ Pound Feeds U.K. Market Angst

•   Bloomberg: Libor Deadline Extension Would Be ‘Huge Relief’ for Markets

•   Bloomberg: A Brazilian Farming Boom Is Rewarding Funds That Bet on Bad Debt

•   Bloomberg: Infrastructure Boom Persists Despite Commodity Rally, WSP CEO Says

•   Bloomberg: Remote Work Projections Are on the Rise in U.S Managers Survey

•   Bloomberg: China’s Coal Frenzy Has Commodity Freight Zooming Higher

•   Bloomberg: Drive for Ambitious H2 Cost Targets Is On: Hydrogen Forum Update

•   Bloomberg: John Kerry Pushes China to Slash More Planet-Warming Gases by 2030

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crunch Fuels Calls for Rethink of EU Green-Shift Design

•   Bloomberg: Energy Transition Faces Metal Supply Deficit, Canada Miners Say

•   Bloomberg: ‘Wild West’ of ESG Ripe for a Crackdown, Veteran Investor Says

•   Bloomberg: Banks Are Really Cashing In on ESG Bond Underwriting: Green Insight

•   Bloomberg: World’s Biggest Offshore Wind Farm Developer Moves Into Japan

•   Bloomberg: Thai Companies Plan Exchange for Carbon Credits, Emulating China

•   Reuters: Merck says research shows its COVID-19 pill works against variants

※   effective against known variants of the coronavirus, including the dominant, highly transmissible Delta

•   Reuters: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine shows 74% efficacy in large U.S. trial

•   Reuters: At least one long-term symptom seen in 37% of COVID-19 patients -study

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE EU to decide on Pfizer booster on Oct. 4 - document

•   Reuters: EU extends vaccine export control mechanism until year-end - official

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE U.S. has reached out to China about cutting oil imports from Iran, officials say

•   Reuters: ECB's Lagarde flags bottlenecks, energy and virus as key risks

•   Reuters: BoE's Bailey sees UK economy regaining pre-pandemic level in early 2022

•   Reuters: Britons turn more downbeat about finances as inflation rises

•   Reuters: Italy's electricity bills to rise 29.8% in next quarter - regulator

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE China's regulators tighten scrutiny of FX dealers - sources

•   Reuters: Myanmar currency drops 60% in weeks as economy tanks since February coup

•   Reuters: Taiwan economy likely to grow above 6% this year, finance minister says

•   Reuters: Coal India to ramp up supplies to address utilities' fuel shortage

•   Reuters: Brazil greenlights power line through indigenous reserve in the Amazon

•   Reuters: More renewables best answer to energy price surge, Europe power lobby hears

•   Reuters: Micron sees dip in chip demand as PC makers face parts shortages

•   Reuters: Explainer: Global energy shortage or a coincidence of regional crises?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Auto industry wonders whether Ford-SK battery plants will sport the union label

•   Reuters: Analysis: Debt ceiling worries start to rattle Wall Street

•   AP: Some fear boosters will hurt drive to reach the unvaccinated

•   CNN: The workers who keep global supply chains moving are warning of a 'system collapse'

•   CNBC: This is not 1973': Economist rules out 'stagflation' and persistent price pressures

•   CNBC: $80 oil is sending market toward demand destruction: Morgan Stanley

•   CNBC: We need to talk to China,' Europe's climate chief says ahead of COP26

•   CNBC: Honor, the smartphone brand Huawei sold off, regains share in China

•   CNBC: UK energy titan SSE says low wind, driest conditions in 70 years hit renewable generation

•   CNBC: Southeast Asia offers opportunities to scale up renewable energy, CEO says

•   MarketWatch: Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction

•   MarketWatch: Here’s how the stock market has performed in past government shutdowns

•   SCMP: China’s power crisis: Beijing vows to increase coal imports and ‘strengthen adjustment of supply and demand’

•   SCMP: Chinese power producers seen taking a hit from surging coal prices to meet winter demand with no sign of tariff hike

•   SCMP: The local government failures behind China’s power crisis

•   SCMP: China pushes back against Xinjiang criticism in event hosted by its UN delegation

•   SCMP: China’s ‘artificial sun’ tipped to provide electricity in 10 years if Beijing backs it

•   SCMP: China population: plummeting births in Anhui province underscore ‘extremely severe’ demographic problem

•   SCMP: China sending ‘clear message’ with quantitative easing warning as US prepares to raise debt ceiling

•   SCMP: China’s Guangdong slashes foreign investment barriers amid challenges from coronavirus pandemic, US tensions

•   Caixin: In Depth: Evergrande Auto Races to Convince Investors It Can Make a Car

•   Nikkei Asia: Kishidanomics promises 'virtuous growth cycle' with redistribution

•   Nikkei Asia: Renesas fights chip shortage with plans for 50% more microcontrollers

•   Nikkei Asia: Honda joins $400bn gold rush to monetize smart car data

•   Nikkei Asia: iPhone 13 delivery times lengthen as COVID hits suppliers in Vietnam

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: China and Taiwan bids catch CPTPP chair Japan off guard

•   Mainichi: Toyota's Aug. global output mark 1st fall in a year amid parts crunch

•   Economic Times: Expect more than 7 pc growth for India this decade: CEA

•   Economic Times: India is said to seek to narrow budget deficit target to 6.3%

•   Power Engineering: Global nuclear leaders unite in Vienna to create group for future advocacy of industry - Power Engineering

•   MINING.com: How the decarbonization megatrend is disrupting mining investment

•   MINING.com: One of the world’s largest clean energy projects closer to becoming reality

•   Equipment World: How to Solve the Construction Labor Shortage

•   DIGITIMES: Notebook supply chain braces for impact of China power restrictions

•   DIGITIMES: China smartphone vendors cautious about placing orders, say component suppliers

•   DIGITIMES: Robotic arms get smarter with better hand-eye coordination

•   DIGITIMES: Indonesia sees smartphones sales rise over 20% in 2Q21

•   매경(P1): DB하이텍, 車반도체 사업 나선다

•   매경: 코스피 3000선 무너지나…전문가 추천하는 투자 전략은?

•   매경: [단독] 이재명 기본소득 매년 50조 든다…野 "예산 먹는 하마, 국방예산 맞먹어”

•   매경: 탄소중립위, 2030년 감축목표 40%로 올렸다

•   매경: [단독] 갈길 먼 탄소중립 핵심기술, 24개기술 중 고작 1개 개발

•   매경: 정부 "도로·가스요금은 일단 동결"

•   매경: 한은, 신임 금통위원에 박기영 연세대 교수 추천

•   매경: 포스코 '용광로' 2050년 사라진다

•   매경: 박용만 두산경영硏 회장, 예술의전당 이사장 선임

•   매경: [Biz Focus] 재택근무만 3억명…中 '디지털 거인' 만든 플랫폼의 힘

•   한경(P1): 하나투어, 10월1일부터 전면 출근…첫 '위드 코로나' 실험

•   한경: 점점 식어가는 동학개미 화력…'빚투' 차단에 양도세까지 발목

•   한경: 뭉칫돈 몰리던 회사채 시장도 냉각 조짐…기업 돈줄 막히나

•   한경: 위기의 고용보험…적립금 쪼그라들고 수익률마저 곤두박질

•   한경: 정부는 '先先분양' 나서는데…건설사 선분양도 힘들어진다

•   한경: 서영경 금통위원 "추가 금리인상 필요"

•   한경: 전세대출 규제 앞두고…은행들 잇단 한도 축소

•   한경: 대출금리 1%P 오르면 가계부담 12.5조원 '눈덩이'

•   한경: 中전력난에 부품공장 셧다운…IT株 겨울 오나

•   서경(P1): [단독] 소상공인 '영업손실' 최대 80% 보상받는다

•   서경: 3차 추경 없다지만 재정난 가중···예비비·국고채무부담 꺼낼 수도

•   서경: 여행·관광·숙박업은 보상 제외···집단행동 조짐

•   서경(P1): 美 GVC에 中 전력난까지···韓기업, 中 거리두나

•   서경: 생산물량 조정·야간조업으로 겨우 버텨...'脫중국' 속도 내나

•   서경(P1): 여의도 14배 논밭, 5년새 태양광으로 뒤덮였다

•   서경: 식량자급률 50%도 안되는데···우량 농지에 작물 대신 '태양광 패널' 심어

•   서경: 농업도 무인시대···농기계 업계, 자율주행 농기계 개발·출시 경쟁 후끈

•   서경: 美긴축·인플레 겹악재에 코스피 출렁···"추가 하락 염두에 둬야"

•   서경: 국내 아파트 쓸어담는 중국인··· 3년 5개월간 3조원어치 샀다

•   서경: 돌파감염 1주새 1,892명 증가... "얀센 접종자 부스터샷 검토를"

•   조선(P1): 백신 안맞은 589만명, 접종 예약률은 6.1%... 다중시설 제한 검토

•   조선: 민노총 현대제철 점거에… 현대重 직원들이 직접 선박용 후판 수송

•   조선: 단기적으론 아베의 강경 노선 계승… 장기 집권땐 ‘한국 중시’로 선회 가능성

•   조선비즈: [단독] GC녹십자, 얀센 코로나19 백신 생산한다

•   조선비즈: 20조 서비스 로봇 시장 잡아라… 한발 앞선 LG, 추격하는 삼성

•   인베스트조선: 美 테이퍼링 결정시기 임박 전망에 출렁이는 채권시장

•   헬스조선: [단독]삼성바이오 '모더나 백신', 10월 초 국내 공급 시작

•   중앙: 국내 전기차 화재 70%가 파우치형 배터리

•   중앙: 삼성 폴더블폰, 이전 모델보다 5배 더 팔렸다

•   동아: 시민들 성급한 ‘위드 코로나’… 서울 주말 이동, 4차 유행前 수준

•   채널A: [단독]문 대통령 부부, 다음 달 ‘부스터샷’ 접종 검토

•   한국(P1): "낡은 근로기준법 반드시 손봐야...5인 미만 적용하고 고임금자 배제할 수도"

•   한국: 물류센터의 미래? 아시아에서 가장 자동화된 '네오003' 가보니

•   세계: “기후위기 당사자 배제 산업계만 대변… 탄소중립안 다시 짜야” [연중기획-지구의 미래]

•   머니투데이: [단독] 2조원대 금고 열린다...정부, 기후대응기금 전담조직 신설

•   머니투데이: [단독]文정부서 끊긴 '원자력백서'…올해도 발간 '미정'

•   머니투데이: 미중 반도체 전쟁의 후폭풍, 반도체 M&A 시장 역성장 조짐

•   헤럴드경제: 탄소중립 에너지정책 전환 촉진...4조 R&D예타 추진

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 삼성, 평택에 53층 반도체 컨트롤타워 짓는다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "선택 아닌 생존 필수조건" ‘수소경제 전환’ 속도 붙었다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 삼성 폴더블폰 이어 아이폰13도… 개통 지연 사태 맞나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 금리 오르는 건 시간문제… 기업 공모채 발행 서두른다

※   공모채 시장이 부담스러운 두산중공업, 이랜드파크, LX인터내셔널 등 대기업 계열사들도 사모 시장을 꾸준히 찾고 있다.

•   아시아경제(P1): [ESG 심포지엄]"독립적인 기업 지배구조 구성, ESG 큰 방향성"

•   아시아경제: [ESG 심포지엄] "ESG, 기업 글로벌 경쟁력의 핵심"

•   아시아경제: [단독]"투자 상생 덜했다"…작년 기업에서 더 걷은 세금 1조

•   아시아경제: LG전자, 펜트업 수요 둔화 우려에도 3Q 역대 최대 매출 전망

•   디지털타임스: 치명률 약 8분의 1로 줄인 `백신효과`

•   디지털타임스: 집값 급등·대출 규제에 소형아파트 몸값만 올려놨다

•   디지털타임스: 스마트폰 이미지센서 시장 10% 커져

•   이데일리(P1): “대선 이후에도 집값 年10% 이상 오른다”

•   이데일리: 홍남기 “주택 공급 총력…탈세·편법증여 엄정 대응”

•   연합: 오늘 2천400명대 예상…거리두기 2주 재연장 가닥, 내일 발표

•   연합: 김정은 "10월 남북연락선 복원…미 새정부 적대정책 변함없어"

•   연합: 갤럭시노트-S22 합쳐질까…폴더블 인기에 라인업 조기 재편설

•   연합: "서울 집값 오르면 지방 부자들도 달려든다" 통계로 확인

•   연합: 솔루스첨단소재, mRNA 백신 원료시장 진출…전달체 소재 개발

•   뉴시스: 그린뉴딜엑스포, 내달 6일 킨텍스서 개막…수소 등 혁신기술 겨룬다

•   YTN: [황출새]김동연"청계천 판자촌에서 살았지만, 사회에서 받은 것 환원할 것"

•   에너지경제: 한수원, 탈원전 관련 소송 등에 보험 청구 검토

•   에너지경제: 한국 진출 유럽 에너지 기업들, 정부에 규제 개선 요구…"풍력 경제성 확보 필요"

•   에너지경제: 한전, 2030년까지 송·변전 설비 투자 42% 신재생에너지에 쓴다

•   에너지데일리: “한국, 2030년 온실가스 2018년 대비 50% 이상 줄여야”

•   전자신문(P1): 현대차, 전기차 풀라인업 내년까지 조기 구축한다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Mark Leonard): The False Promise of AUKUS

•   Project Syndicate(Raghuram G. Rajan): China's Risky Business Crackdown

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): China's Housing Conundrum

•   Project Syndicate(Shang-Jin Wei): Preventing an Evergrande Confidence Crisis in China

•   Project Syndicate(Connie Hedegaard): Greening Next-Generation Europe

•   FT(Editorial Board): The US debt ceiling needs to be raised

•   FT(Megan Greene): Productivity growth is almost everything in the post-Covid recovery

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): My petrol station dash

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): Bond sell-off is a warning to the Fed

•   FT(John Thornhill): Beware the known unknowns when finance meets AI

•   FT(Benjamin Haddad): Europe must wean itself off US defence to reset transatlantic relations

•   FT(Kathrin Hille): Taipei’s bid to join transpacific trade pact could be held hostage by Beijing

•   FT(Daniel Dombey): Spanish political tensions put pressure on business to act

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): More Diversity at the Fed

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Germany’s Biggest Loser

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Generals Contradict Biden on Afghanistan

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Nancy Pelosi’s Hell Week

•   WSJ(Mark Dubowitz): Biden Paints Himself Into a Corner on the Iran Nuclear Deal

•   WSJ(Tom Giovanetti): Democrats’ Plan to Tax the Poor

•   WSJ(Tim Groser): The U.S. Has a Way Back to the TPP

•   NYT(Heather Boushey): I’m One of Biden’s Advisers. Here’s How I Think About His Economic Agenda.

•   WP(Edward B. Foley): The threat of Trump illegally taking power in 2025 is real. Here’s what Congress can do.

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gongloff): If Stagflation Is Coming, What Can We Do About It?

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Is Biden’s Economic Plan Actually a Good Idea?

•   Bloomberg(Noah Smith): West Virginia Needs Biden’s Bill More Than Manchin Politics

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): The U.K.’s Energy Crisis Is an Opportunity for Batteries

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert): Inflation and Supply Shortages Raise Prices, Awaken Bond Bears, Drive Up Yields

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Powell dallies too much on inflation

•   MarketWatch(Michael J. Hicks): The growth gap is widening at the expense of states with lower vaccination rates

•   Nikkei Asia(William Pesek): Fumio Kishida should kick-start reform drive to meet China challenge

•   Nikkei Asia(Naoya Yoshino): Japan needs a reformer, not stabilizer, in next PM Kishida

•   한경(사설): 中 전력대란, 치솟는 유가…'에너지 수입국'엔 곳곳이 암초

•   문화(정용훈): ‘ESS(電力저장장치) 비용만 1000兆’ 탈원전 기만극

•   파이낸셜뉴스(사설): 입이 떡 벌어지는 탈원전 비용, 감당할 수 있나