Business Intelligence Monitor Weekly 201005~201011

[Reports]

•   IMF: Fiscal Monitor: October 2020 (CH2)

•   IMF: Brazil: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2020 Article IV Mission

•   IMF: Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust—Second Tranche Of Debt Service Relief In The Context Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

•   IMF: The Long Ascent: Overcoming the Crisis and Building a More Resilient Economy

•   IMF: Mexico: IMF Staff Concluding Statement of the 2020 Article IV Mission

•   IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2020 (CH 2, 3)

•   IMF: COVID’s Impact in Real Time: Finding Balance Amid the Crisis

•   World Bank: COVID-19 to Add as Many as 150 Million Extreme Poor by 2021

•   World Bank: Pandemic Recovery a Lesson for Five-Year Plan

•   World Bank: Latin America and the Caribbean Must Seek to Contain the Costs from COVID-19 While Waiting for a Vaccine

•   World Bank: World Bank Confirms Economic Downturn in Sub-Saharan Africa, Outlines Key Polices Needed for Recovery

•   World Bank: Monitoring households and firms in Vietnam during COVID-19

•   World Bank: Unmasking the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses : Firm Level Evidence from Across the World

•   World Bank: Inflation Targeting in India : An Interim Assessment

•   UNCTAD: COVID-19 has changed online shopping forever, survey shows

•   OECD: Consumer Prices, OECD - Updated: 5 October 2020

•   OECD: Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, October 2020 - OECD

•   WTO: WTO issues new edition of Trade Profiles publication

•   WTO: Trade shows signs of rebound from COVID-19, recovery still uncertain

•   ADB: Green Finance Strategies for Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia: Greening Recoveries for Planet and People

•   ADB: Trajectories to High Income: Growth Dynamics in Japan, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea

•   BIS: Maintaining sound money amid and after the pandemic

•   BIS: At the crossroads in the transition away from LIBOR - from overnight to term rates

•   U.S. Treasury: Treasury Sanctions Eighteen Major Iranian Banks

•   U.S. Department of Commerce : U.S. Department of Commerce Issues Affirmative Preliminary Antidumping Duty Determinations on Common Alloy Aluminum Sheet From 18 Countries

•   CBO: Monthly Budget Review for September 2020

•   Fed: Speech by Chair Jerome H. Powell - Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead

•   Fed: Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound

•   Fed: Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions

•   Fed: The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Markets Economies’ Financial Conditions

•   Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2020

•   Fed: The Corporate Bond Market Crises and the Government Response

•   Fed: Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy

•   FRBNY: Are People Overconfident about Avoiding COVID-19?

•   FRBNY: The Banking Industry and COVID-19: Lifeline or Life Support?

•   FRBSF: Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis

•   St. Louis Fed: Renewable Sources of Electricity: Where Excess Capacity Is Built-In

•   St. Louis Fed: Tokens vs. Accounts: Why the Distinction Still Matters

•   St. Louis Fed: How Financially Fit Are American Retirees?

•   St. Louis Fed: What Are the Fed’s Dollar Swap Lines and FIMA Repos, and Why Do They Matter?

•   Philadelphia Fed: "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market"

•   ECB: Philip R. Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic: meeting the challenge

•   ECB: Yves Mersch: European economic governance: early lessons from the crisis

•   ECB: Christine Lagarde: Written interview with Harvard International Review

•   ECB: Isabel Schnabel: The ECB’s independence in times of mounting public debt

•   ECB: Philip R. Lane: Interview with Wall Street Journal

•   ECB: Financial drivers of the euro area business cycle: a DSGE-based approach

•   ECB: The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis

•   ECB: Green asset pricing

•   ECB: Covid-19 and rural landscape: the case of Italy

•   ECB: The case for central bank independence: a review of key issues in the international debate

•   RBI: Monetary Policy Statement, 2020-21 Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) October 7-9, 2020

•   NBER: Collaborating During Coronavirus: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Nature of Work

•   CEPR: CEPR Discussion Papers 4 October 2020

•   CEPR: Fifty-first Issue - Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers

•   NABE: NABE October Outlook Survey

•   World Economic Forum: Unemployment Main Concern for Business Leaders but Climate is Moving Up List of Top Risks

•   World Economic Forum: Past seasonal colds may provide some protection against COVID-19, according to a small study

•   World Economic Forum: How do workers really feel about remote working? This survey had some surprising results

•   World Economic Forum: How debt for climate swaps could spur a green recovery

•   World Economic Forum: These countries were doing best at tackling inequality before COVID-19

•   World Economic Forum: How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

•   World Economic Forum: COVID-19 is increasing multiple kinds of inequality. Here’s what we can do about it

•   Brookings: As Election Day nears, COVID-19 spreads further into red America

•   Brookings: October 2020 update to TIGER: COVID-19 remains an impediment to the global recovery

•   Brookings: What could additional fiscal policy do for the economy in the next three years?

•   Brookings: Federal debt policy in an era of low interest rates: A guide to the issues

•   Brookings: Will voters in the Midwest’s struggling communities decide the election again?

•   Brookings: Can developing countries rein in offshore wealth?

•   Brookings: How the Iran-Iraq war will shape the region for decades to come

•   Brookings: This week’s Quad ministerial meeting, in four charts

•   Brookings: Did the vice presidential debate matter? It did, and it wasn’t good for Trump.

•   CSIS: Renewable Energy Development Can Strengthen Energy and Water Security in India

•   CSIS: Climate Solutions Series: Decarbonizing Heavy Industry

•   CSIS: Buy American

•   CSIS: Russia in the Middle East: Part Six

•   CSIS: Complicated but Necessary: A Transatlantic Policy Approach toward China

•   CSIS: Covid-19 and Asia’s Infrastructure Imperative

•   CSIS: Assessing the Direction of South Korea-Japan Relations in a New Era

•   CSIS: Who Needs a Gas OPEC?

•   CSIS: The Chinese Communist Party Targets the Private Sector

•   38 North: North Korea Unveils Two New Strategic Missiles in October 10 Parade

•   McKinsey:COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #26, October 7, 2020

•   IEA: North Africa’s pathways to clean energy transitions

•   EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook

•   OPEC: OPEC launches 2020 edition of the World Oil Outlook

•   Wood Mackenzie: China’s carbon neutrality bill could hit over US$5 trillion

•   Gartner: Gartner Says Worldwide Data Center Infrastructure Spending to Grow 6% in 2021

•   Gartner: Gartner Identifies Three Trends That Will Impact the Future of Supply Chain

•   Counterpoint: 5G Smartphones Account for 14% of Total US Smartphone Sales in Aug

•   Counterpoint: Nokia’s Revival – Is the Finnish Vendor Already Benefiting from Huawei’s Absence?

•   Canalys: PC market shipments grow a stellar 13% in Q3 2020 to break 10-year record

•   DRAMeXchange: 【Market View】China's Semiconductor Industry to Brace for Impact as SMIC Assesses Export Restrictions Placed by U.S., Says TrendForce

•   DRAMeXchange: 【Market View】Overall Memory ASP Projected to Decline by Nearly 10% Given Persistent Oversupply in 4Q20, Says TrendForce

•   한국은행: 해외경제 포커스(제2020-38호)

※   참고: 인도-중국간 국경분쟁 확대 및 경제적 영향

•   한국은행: 2020년 9월말 외환보유액

•   한국은행: 2020년 2/4분기중 자금순환(잠정)

•   한국은행: 2020년 8월 국제수지(잠정)

•   한국은행: 금융통화위원회 의사록(2020년도 제21차)(2020.09.24)

•   한국은행: [동향분석] 최근의 미국경제 상황과 평가

•   한국은행: [현지정보] Powell 연준의장의 NABE 연설 : 최근 경제상황 및 향후 과제

•   한국은행: [현지정보] 2020년 9월 FOMC 회의 의사록 내용

•   한국은행: [현지정보] 스가 정권 디지털화 정책의 주요 내용 및 과제

•   국제금융센터: 코로나19 관련 동향 및 해외시각(10.5)

•   국제금융센터: [은행] 글로벌 은행권 주간 동향(10.05)

•   국제금융센터: [Fund Flow] 글로벌 펀드자금, 주식펀드가 재차 유입으로 전환

•   국제금융센터: 코로나19 관련 동향 및 해외시각(10.6)

•   국제금융센터: [20.10월] 국제원자재시장: 원자재가격, 코로나19 우려 속 당분간 관망세 예상

•   국제금융센터: 주요 투자은행의 세계경제 및 주요국 성장률 전망(2020.9월말 기준)

•   국제금융센터: 주요 투자은행의 아시아 주요국 경제지표 전망(2020. 9월말 기준)

•   국제금융센터: [글로벌] 주간 Global Opinions(9. 28~10.4)

•   국제금융센터: 코로나19 관련 동향 및 해외시각(10.7)

•   국제금융센터: [20.10월] 국제금융시장 동향 및 주요 이슈: 갈림길

•   국제금융센터: `20.9월 FOMC 의사록 주요내용 및 평가

•   국제금융센터: 코로나19 관련 동향 및 해외시각(10.8)

•   국제금융센터: [주간] 美 추가 부양책 타결 기대감 회복으로 위험회피 완화

•   국제금융센터: 美 유동성 증가의 인플레이션 영향 평가

•   kotra: 2020 美대선 후보 경제·산업·통상 정책 전망

•   kotra: 미국, 중국 신장지역 수입물품에 대한 통관보류 명령 발표

•   kotra: EU, 탄소국경세 도입 추진에 따르는 영향은?

•   kotra: 짙어지는 노딜 브렉시트 가능성, 영국의 무역협상 동향

•   kotra: EU-중국 간 투자협정(CAI) 힘겨루기 한창, 연내타결 안개 속

•   kotra: 美, 자동차 환경규제를 두고 엇갈린 정부와 기업들

•   kotra: 팬데믹이 앞당기는 美 재생에너지 시대

•   kotra: 중국 전기차배터리 시장, 1년 만에 플러스 전환

•   kotra: 미얀마 코로나 재확산과 경제 상황

•   kotra: 영국 수소 경제 동향 및 전망

•   kotra: 독일 5G 설비에 한국산 기회 생기는가

•   EMERiCs: [동향세미나] 인도, 농업 관련법 개정안 주요내용과 배경

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드]인도, 전면적 농업 개혁 법안 통과

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드] 아르메니아-아제르바이잔, 무력 충돌 격화

•   EMERiCs: 우즈베키스탄 인프라 시장 동향

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드] 사우디, 성지순례 재개와 국내 관광 활성화로 관광업 회복 모색

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드] 중동 각국, 코로나19 재확산으로 경제적 피해 감수하며 봉쇄 강화

•   EMERiCs: UAE, 코로나19 위기 속 고용시장 회복 추세

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드] 베네수엘라, 군사력 강화 선포...미국과의 신경전 계속

•   EMERiCs: 칠레 경제 동향(5G, 환율, 항공업계 동향 등)

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드]터키, 통화 위기 대응 위해 2년 만에 금리 인상

•   EMERiCs: [이슈트렌드]폴란드의 탈석탄·재생 에너지 전환 계획, 석탄업계 반발 직면

•   EMERiCs: 中 전국 재정과 지방 재정 현황 분석

•   EMERiCs: 매월 예상을 웃도는 中 수출 증가세와 시사점

•   EMERiCs: 中 고차원적 개방형 경제시스템 구축 속도, FTZ 21곳으로 확대

•   EMERiCs: 中 수소연료전지차 보급을 위한 준비 본격 착수

•   에너지경제연구원: [격주간] 세계 에너지시장 인사이트 (제20-20호)

•   에너지경제연구원: [격주간] 세계 원전시장 인사이트(2020.10.08)

•   현대경제연구원: 2021년 국내 경제 이슈

•   국회예산정책처: [경제현안분석 제99호] 혁신성장 전략투자의 현황 및 경제적 파급효과 분석

•   국회입법조사처: 미 대선 후보의 한반도 관련 주요 정책 비교와 시사점

•   국회입법조사처: [현안브리핑 제26호] 코로나19 대응 국내·외 동향

•   금융연구원: 금융브리프 29-19

•   하나금융경영연구소: 2021년 경제·금융시장 전망

•   하나금융경영연구소: 2021년 하나 산업 전망

•   우리금융경영연구소: 미 대선 관련 기대·불확실성이 반영되는 금융시장 - 10월 금융시장 브리프

•   IBK경제연구소: 공유경제위기인가,기회인가?

•   KB: 10월 5일 기준 『[주간] KB부동산 Liiv ON 주택시장동향』조사결과

•   건설산업연구원: 2020년 월간 건설·부동산 동향 10월

•   건설산업연구원: 건설동향브리핑 777호

•   국토연구원: 유럽 그린딜이 우리나라 국토·도시 정책에 주는 시사점

•   국가안보전략연구원: 코로나19 이후 국제질서 변화와 다자주의 국제협력 전망

•   대한상의: 최근 기업 금융지원 정책의 평가와 과제

•   대한상의: 美 대통령 선거가 야기할 변화와 시사점

•   전경련: 2020 상반기 산업단지 실적 분석

•   전경련: 수소 경제 현황과 과제

•   한국경제연구원: 대학 졸업생, 올해 절반 이상(55.5%) 백수 전망

•   한국경제연구원: 중소기업의 성장을 막는 ‘개인유사법인 사내유보금 과세’ 도입 철회해야

•   한국경제연구원: 글로벌에 치이고 전통에 밀리고... 초라한 韓 신산업 R&D 성적표

•   한국경제연구원: 증세효과만 있는 투자·상생협력촉진세제 일몰되어야

•   농촌경제연구원: 해외곡물시장 동향 제9권 제5호

•   기재부: 9월 소비자물가 동향

•   기재부: 국제신용평가사 피치(Fitch), 우리나라 국가신용등급을 AA-(안정적)로 유지

•   기재부: 재정의 지속가능성 유지 위한 『한국형 재정준칙』 도입 추진

•   산업부: (설명자료)100kW 미만 발전소는 수수료가 면제되고 있고 수수료 미납에 따른 공급인증서(REC) 미발급은 없으며, 미발급은 신재생법 시행령상의 발급 신청기한(90일) 경과가 원인이나 최근 시행령 개정(10.1일 시행)을 통해 기한 내 신청을 못한 경우에도 REC가 발급되도록 제도를 개선함(10.5일자 서울경제)

•   산업부: (설명자료)학교 태양광의 경제성은 지속 향상되고 있으며, 학교 태양광 설치는 경제성 측면 뿐 아니라 환경적·교육적 측면을 종합적으로 고려할 필요가 있음(조선일보 10.5일 보도에 대한 설명)

•   산업부: (설명자료)국내 설치 태양광 모듈에는 기준치 이하의 납外 크롬 등 유해한 중금속은 포함되어 있지 않으며, 재활용 처리 시설용량 또한 충분한 수준임. 또한 23년부터 생산자책임재활용제도 시행으로 생산자 책임하에 폐패널 재활용 및 처리가 이루어질 예정임 (10.5일자 연합뉴스)

•   산업부: (설명자료)발전공기업이 추진하는 해상풍력 등 신재생에너지 사업도 공공기관 투자비가 500억 이상인 경우 예비타당성조사를 거쳐 추진 타당성을 인정받아야 하며, 예타 분석시 B/C 지수는 경제·사회적 비용과 편익을 분석한 것으로 순수한 사업 수익성과는 다름 (KBS, 세계일보 10.7일자 보도에 대한 설명)

•   산업부: (설명자료)주민참여형 재생에너지 발전사업은 수요가 꾸준히 확대되고 있으며, 국민주주프로젝트는 세부 지원요건 등을 심사·평가하여 선정하므로 한 사람이 수 십, 수 백억원을 융자받을 수 있는 구조는 아님(뉴스핌 10.7일자 보도에 대한 설명)

•   국토부: 스마트 물류센터에 대한 재정적·행정적 지원 강화

•   금융위: [보도참고] 2020년 9월중 5대은행 가계대출 동향(잠정)

•   공정위: 공정거래법 시행령 개정안 입법예고

[Magazines]

•   Economist: The pandemic has caused the world’s economies to diverge

•   Economist: The world economy - The peril and the promise

•   Economist: International trade - Changing places

•   Economist: Labour markets - Zoom and gloom

•   Economist: Competition - Survival of the fittest

•   Economist: Interest rates - The eternal zero

•   Economist: Emerging markets - Prognosis uncertain

•   Economist: The role of government - The right kind of recovery

•   Economist: Digital money - Ant Group and fintech come of age

•   Economist: Queen of the colony - What Ant Group’s IPO says about the future of finance

•   Economist: Lessons of Nagorno-Karabakh - Why “America First” makes wars in other places more likely

•   Economist: American democracy - The spreading scourge of voter suppression

•   Economist: Land of the mask-free - The real lessons from Sweden’s approach to covid-19

•   Economist: Strait shooting - Defending Taiwan is growing costlier and deadlier

•   Economist: Banyan - For good and ill, India’s prime minister is hard at work

•   Economist: The Veep debate - Mike Pence v Kamala Harris ends in a normal sort of a draw

•   Economist: Lexington - The battle in miniature

•   Economist: The Treasury - The rise of Rishi Sunak

•   Economist: Brexit talks - Will Britain's deadline for a trade deal with the EU be met?

•   Economist: Mortgage reform - Boris Johnson wants 25-year fixed-rate mortgages

•   Economist: Boris Johnson’s optimistic green-energy plan

•   Economist: Not so choppy - How covid-19 put wind in shipping companies’ sails

•   Economist: Ex-antics - Google, antitrust and how best to regulate big tech

•   Economist: Schumpeter - Why Rio Tinto and China are at loggerheads

•   Economist: The digital surge - How the digital surge will reshape finance

•   Economist: Pain relief - Are Europe’s furlough schemes winding down?

•   Economist: How investors are hedging against possible election chaos in America

•   Economist: Working to rule - How trade is being used to enforce labour standards

•   Economist: Buttonwood - What takeovers of fund managers tell you about markets

•   Economist: Free exchange - Why trade imbalances are a worry during a global downturn

•   Economist: New materials - A novel polymer should make 3D printing more effective

•   Forbes: What Could A Biden Administration Mean For Stocks And Stimulus?

•   Forbes: 8 Reasons Covid-19 Coronavirus Could Get Worse With Fall ‘Second Wave’

•   Forbes: Huawei’s Rivals Are Already Filling A $27 Billion Hole Left By US Sanctions

•   Forbes: The Biggest Threats First-Time Homebuyers Face Right Now

•   Forbes: Polls vs. Stock Market: What Do You Believe?

•   Forbes: A Recap Of The First Vice Presidential Debate: What Did We Learn About Economic Plans?

•   Fortune: China joining WHO COVID vaccine program is a chance to exploit US absence

•   Fortune: COVID: What might outdoor restaurant dining look like this winter? IDEO and Chicago have some ideas, designs

•   Fortune: Trump-Biden polls: Joe Bidens polling lead is larger than Obamas 2008 electoral landslide

•   Fortune: Who will win 2020 election: Trump or Biden? Predictions from the stock market, U.S. dollar and other Wall Street indicators

•   Fortune: Has COVID killed the bond market?

•   Fortune: US-China trade deal targets were always too aspirational—PIIEs Chad Bown

•   Fortune: These 6 economic charts tell the story of Trump’s presidency

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: What’s Baked Into the Market? And What Does That Even Mean?

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Bankruptcies Show a Surprising Decline

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Covid Pandemic: How Mumbai’s Largest Slum Dharavi Stopped Coronavirus

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Democrat Collin Peterson Faces Strong Republican Challenge in Minnesota

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Small Business: How to Launch a Business During the Coronavirus Pandemic

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Most Dovish Fed in History Is on a Mission to Spur Inflation

•   Time: Donald Trumps COVID-19 Diagnosis Is Forcing Him to Face His Personal—and Political—Vulnerability

•   Time: Why China Isn't Going Back to Normal Anytime Soon

•   Atlantic: Taiwan Is the Next Front in the U.S.-China Standoff

•   Atlantic: Fix America With Libraries, Playgrounds, and Parks

•   Atlantic: Trump Failed the 3 A.M. Test

•   Atlantic: Why the Trump Administration Doesnt Want to Help

•   Atlantic: Trumps Version of Poll Watching Sounds Like Thuggery

•   Foreign Policy: North Korea Unveils New Missile System That Could Reach U.S.

•   Foreign Policy: This Election Is About America’s Safety After Trump Destroyed Trust in U.S. Intelligence

•   Foreign Policy: Democrats Have Let Go of the Old Ideas About Climate Change, Which Might be A Good Thing for the Environment

•   Foreign Policy: Do Pence and Harris Know Enough About Foreign Policy to Be Commander in Chief?

•   Foreign Policy: Bolsonaro’s Brush With the Coronavirus Politically Empowered Him—at Least in the Short Term. Will the Same Be True for Trump?

•   Foreign Policy: The Pandemic Won’t End Globalization, Kill Liberal Democracy, or Bolster China’s Soft Power

•   Foreign Policy: The Case for Climate Reparations

•   Foreign Policy: Trump, COVID-19, and the Future of International Order

•   Foreign Affairs: Hillary Clinton: A National Security Reckoning

•   Foreign Affairs: The Basic Income Has Its Moment

•   Foreign Affairs: The Untapped Power of Trump’s Leverage

•   Foreign Affairs: Modi’s Himalayan Dilemma

•   Foreign Affairs: The False Promise of Regime Change

•   Barron's: How Covid-19 Changes Are Actually Helping Gap and Other Retail Stocks | Barrons

•   Barron's: An Agenda for the Annual Meetings: Climate Change and Debt Relief | Barrons

•   Barron's: Has Rural America Turned on Trump? | Barrons

•   Barron's: Trump with Covid-19 Is a Propaganda Windfall for Beijing | Barrons

•   MIT Technology Review: Winter will make the pandemic worse. Here’s what you need to know.

•   Power Magazine: China Brings 2.2-GW Solar Park Online

•   Windpower Monthly: How SGRE and GE’s escalating legal battle could backfire

•   Windpower Monthly: Wind to play central role in Spains post-Covid recovery

•   Windpower Monthly: Emerging markets order more than 1GW of wind turbines in September

•   Windpower Monthly: European renewable energy demand reaches record levels amid pandemic

•   Science: Calm down about political ‘mischief’ around COVID-19 vaccines, scientists say

•   Nature: What China’s speedy COVID vaccine deployment means for the pandemic

•   매경이코노미: SK그룹 과제 | 돈 많은 SK하이닉스, M&A 한계 뚜렷…지배구조 정리·배터리 분쟁 해소 시급

•   한경비즈니스: ‘서울 집값’ 상승률, 통계마다 다른 이유 [아기곰의 부동산 산책]

•   이코노미스트: [10년째 미분양, 일산 두산위브더제니스] 미분양 줄이려 임대 줬는데 ‘독’이 돼 돌아와 

•   이코노믹리뷰: “희망 보인다”...두산의 우직한 리더십 눈길

•   이코노믹리뷰: [2020 국감] 두드려 맞는 해상 풍력, 첫술에 배부르랴

•   월간로봇기술: 중국 & 대만의 로봇 전시회 현장 스케치

[Books]

•   FT: Tim Harford’s How to Make the World Add Up — a welcome guide to statistics

•   FT: FT business books: October edition

•   WSJ: ‘Making India Great’ Review: Rising Expectations

•   매경: 더 인간적인 자본주의 `공동선 경제`